On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO2 emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO2 emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.

The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Toward a successful multinational crop plant genome initiative

Plant genome research is needed as the foundation for an entirely new level of efficiency and success in the application of genetics and breeding to crop plants and products from crop plants. Genetic improvements in crop plants beyond current capabilities are needed to meet the growing world demand not only for more food, but also a greater diversity of food, higher-quality food, and safer food, produced on less land, while conserving soil, water, and genetic resources. Plant biology research, which is poised for dramatic advances, also depends fundamentally on plant genome research. The current Arabidopsis Genome Project has proved of immediate value to plant biology research, but a much greater effort is needed to ensure the full benefits of plant biology and especially plant genome research to agriculture. International cooperation is critical, both because genome projects are too large for any one country and the information forthcoming is of benefit to the world and not just the countries that do the work. Recent research on grass genomes has revealed that, because of extensive senteny and colinearity within linkage groups that make up the chromosomes, new information on the genome of one grass can be used to understand the genomes and predict the location of genes on chromosomes of the other grasses. Genome research applied to grasses as a group thereby can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of breeding for improvement of each member of this group, which includes wheat, corn, and rice, the world’s three most important sources of food.