Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.

Antigen-driven CD4+ T cell and HIV-1 dynamics: Residual viral replication under highly active antiretroviral therapy

Antigen-induced stimulation of the immune system can generate heterogeneity in CD4+ T cell division rates capable of explaining the temporal patterns seen in the decay of HIV-1 plasma RNA levels during highly active antiretroviral therapy. Posttreatment increases in peripheral CD4+ T cell counts are consistent with a mathematical model in which host cell redistribution between lymph nodes and peripheral blood is a function of viral burden. Model fits to patient data suggest that, although therapy reduces HIV replication below replacement levels, substantial residual replication continues. This residual replication has important consequences for long-term therapy and the evolution of drug resistance and represents a challenge for future treatment strategies.

Visualizing the dynamics of T cell activation: Intracellular adhesion molecule 1 migrates rapidly to the T cell/B cell interface and acts to sustain calcium levels

T cell recognition typically involves both the engagement of a specific T cell receptor with a peptide/major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and a number of accessory interactions. One of the most important interactions is between the integrin lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1 (LFA-1) on the T cell and intracellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) on an antigen-presenting cell. By using fluorescence video microscopy and an ICAM-1 fused to a green fluorescent protein, we find that the elevation of intracellular calcium in the T cell that is characteristic of activation is followed almost immediately by the rapid accumulation of ICAM-1 on a B cell at a tight interface between the two cells. This increased density of ICAM-1 correlates with the sustained elevation of intracellular calcium in the T cell, known to be critical for activation. The use of peptide/MHC complexes and ICAM-1 on a supported lipid bilayer to stimulate T cells also indicates a major role for ICAM-1/LFA-1 in T cell activation but, surprisingly, not for adhesion, as even in the absence of ICAM-1 the morphological changes and adhesive characteristics of an activated T cell are seen in this system. We suggest that T cell antigen receptor-mediated recognition of a very small number of MHC/peptide complexes could trigger LFA-1/ICAM-1 clustering and avidity regulation, thus amplifying and stabilizing the production of second messengers.

Experimentally determined chaotic phase synchronization in a neuronal system

Mathematical analysis of the subthreshold oscillatory properties of inferior olivary neurons in vitro indicates that the oscillation is nonlinear and supports low dimensional chaotic dynamics. This property leads to the generation of complex functional states that can be attained rapidly via phase coherence that conform to the category of “generalized synchronization.” Functionally, this translates into neuronal ensemble properties that can support maximum functional permissiveness and that rapidly can transform into robustly determined multicellular coherence.

Constraints on nebular dynamics and chemistry based on observations of annealed magnesium silicate grains in comets and in disks surrounding Herbig Ae/Be stars

Understanding dynamic conditions in the Solar Nebula is the key to prediction of the material to be found in comets. We suggest that a dynamic, large-scale circulation pattern brings processed dust and gas from the inner nebula back out into the region of cometesimal formation—extending possibly hundreds of astronomical units (AU) from the sun—and that the composition of comets is determined by a chemical reaction network closely coupled to the dynamic transport of dust and gas in the system. This scenario is supported by laboratory studies of Mg silicates and the astronomical data for comets and for protoplanetary disks associated with young stars, which demonstrate that annealing of nebular silicates must occur in conjunction with a large-scale circulation. Mass recycling of dust should have a significant effect on the chemical kinetics of the outer nebula by introducing reduced, gas-phase species produced in the higher temperature and pressure environment of the inner nebula, along with freshly processed grains with “clean” catalytic surfaces to the region of cometesimal formation. Because comets probably form throughout the lifetime of the Solar Nebula and processed (crystalline) grains are not immediately available for incorporation into the first generation of comets, an increasing fraction of dust incorporated into a growing comet should be crystalline olivine and this fraction can serve as a crude chronometer of the relative ages of comets. The formation and evolution of key organic and biogenic molecules in comets are potentially of great consequence to astrobiology.

Symmetry, stability, and dynamics of multidomain and multicomponent protein systems

Symmetry is commonly observed in many biological systems. Here we discuss representative examples of the role of symmetry in structural molecular biology. Point group symmetries are observed in many protein oligomers whose three-dimensional atomic structures have been elucidated by x-ray crystallography. Approximate symmetry also occurs in multidomain proteins. Symmetry often confers stability on the molecular system and results in economical usage of basic components to build the macromolecular structure. Symmetry is also associated with cooperativity. Mild perturbation from perfect symmetry may be essential in some systems for dynamic functions.

Dynamics of Immature Secretory Granules: Role of Cytoskeletal Elements during Transport, Cortical Restriction, and F-Actin-dependent Tethering

Secretory granules store neuropeptides and hormones and exhibit regulated exocytosis upon appropriate cellular stimulation. They are generated in the trans-Golgi network as immature secretory granules, short-lived vesicular intermediates, which undergo a complex and poorly understood maturation process. Due to their short half-life and low abundance, real-time studies of immature secretory granules have not been previously possible. We describe here a pulse/chase-like system based on the expression of a human chromogranin B-GFP fusion protein in neuroendocrine PC12 cells, which permits direct visualization of the budding of immature secretory granules and their dynamics during maturation. Live cell imaging revealed that newly formed immature secretory granules are transported in a direct and microtubule-dependent manner within a few seconds to the cell periphery. Our data suggest that the cooperative action of microtubules and actin filaments restricts immature secretory granules to the F-actin-rich cell cortex, where they move randomly and mature completely within a few hours. During this maturation period, secretory granules segregate into pools of different motility. In a late phase of maturation, 60% of secretory granules were found to be immobile and about half of these underwent F-actin-dependent tethering.