Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

DNA topoisomerase targets of the fluoroquinolones: A strategy for avoiding bacterial resistance

Fluoroquinolones are antibacterial agents that attack DNA gyrase and topoisomerase IV on chromosomal DNA. The existence of two fluoroquinolone targets and stepwise accumulation of resistance suggested that new quinolones could be found that would require cells to obtain two topoisomerase mutations to display resistance. For wild-type cells to become resistant, the two mutations must be acquired concomitantly. That is expected to occur infrequently. To identify such compounds, fluoroquinolones were tested for the ability to kill a moderately resistant gyrase mutant. Compounds containing a C8-methoxyl group were particularly lethal, and incubation of wild-type cultures on agar containing C8-methoxyl fluoroquinolones produced no resistant mutant, whereas thousands arose during comparable treatment with control compounds lacking the C8 substituent. When the test strain contained a preexisting topoisomerase IV mutation, which by itself conferred no resistance, equally high numbers of resistant mutants were obtained for C8-methoxyl and control compounds. Thus C8-methoxyl fluoroquinolones required two mutations for expression of resistance. Although highly lethal, C8-methoxyl fluoroquinolones were not more effective than C8-H controls at blocking bacterial growth. Consequently, quinolone action involves two events, which we envision as formation of drug–enzyme–DNA complexes followed by release of lethal double-strand DNA breaks. Release of DNA breaks, which must occur less frequently than complex formation, is probably the process stimulated by the C8-methoxyl group. Understanding this stimulation should provide insight into intracellular quinolone action and contribute to development of fluoroquinolones that prevent selection of resistant bacteria.