Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Enhanced somatic mutation rates induced in stem cells of mice by low chronic exposure to ethylnitrosourea.

We have found that the somatic mutation rate at the Dlb-1 locus increases exponentially during low daily exposure to ethylnitrosourea over 4 months. This effect, enhanced mutagenesis, was not observed at a lacI transgene in the same tissue, although the two loci respond very similarly to acute doses. Since both mutations are neutral, the mutant frequency was expected to increase linearly with time in response to a constant mutagenic exposure, as it did for lacI. Enhanced mutagenesis does not result from an overall sensitization of the animals, since mice that had first been treated with a low daily dose for 90 days and then challenged with a large acute dose were not sensitized to the acute dose. Nor was the increased mutant frequency due to selection, since animals that were treated for 90 days and then left untreated for up to 60 days showed little change from the 90-day frequency. The effect is substantial: about 8 times as many Dlb-1 mutants were induced between 90 and 120 days as in the first 30 days. This resulted in a reverse dose rate effect such that 90 mg/kg induced more mutants when delivered at 1 mg/kg per day than at 3 mg/kg per day. We postulate that enhanced mutagenesis arises from increased stem cell proliferation and the preferential repair of transcribed genes. Enhanced mutagenesis may be important for risk evaluation, as the results show that chronic exposures can be more mutagenic than acute ones and raise the possibility of synergism between chemicals at low doses.