Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 Å, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 Å.

A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

Characterization of residual structure in the thermally denatured state of barnase by simulation and experiment: Description of the folding pathway

Residual structure in the denatured state of a protein may contain clues about the early events in folding. We have simulated by molecular dynamics the denatured state of barnase, which has been studied by NMR spectroscopy. An ensemble of 104 structures was generated after 2 ns of unfolding and following for a further 2 ns. The ensemble was heterogeneous, but there was nonrandom, residual structure with persistent interactions. Helical structure in the C-terminal portion of helix α1 (residues 13–17) and in helix α2 as well as a turn and nonnative hydrophobic clustering between β3 and β4 were observed, consistent with NMR data. In addition, there were tertiary contacts between residues in α1 and the C-terminal portion of the β-sheet. The simulated structures allow the rudimentary NMR data to be fleshed out. The consistency between simulation and experiment inspires confidence in the methods. A description of the folding pathway of barnase from the denatured to the native state can be constructed by combining the simulation with experimental data from φ value analysis and NMR.

Progress toward chemical accuracy in the computer simulation of condensed phase reactions.

We describe a procedure for the generation of chemically accurate computer-simulation models to study chemical reactions in the condensed phase. The process involves (i) the use of a coupled semiempirical quantum and classical molecular mechanics method to represent solutes and solvent, respectively; (ii) the optimization of semiempirical quantum mechanics (QM) parameters to produce a computationally efficient and chemically accurate QM model; (iii) the calibration of a quantum/classical microsolvation model using ab initio quantum theory; and (iv) the use of statistical mechanical principles and methods to simulate, on massively parallel computers, the thermodynamic properties of chemical reactions in aqueous solution. The utility of this process is demonstrated by the calculation of the enthalpy of reaction in vacuum and free energy change in aqueous solution for a proton transfer involving methanol, methoxide, imidazole, and imidazolium, which are functional groups involved with proton transfers in many biochemical systems. An optimized semiempirical QM model is produced, which results in the calculation of heats of formation of the above chemical species to within 1.0 kcal/mol (1 kcal = 4.18 kJ) of experimental values. The use of the calibrated QM and microsolvation QM/MM (molecular mechanics) models for the simulation of a proton transfer in aqueous solution gives a calculated free energy that is within 1.0 kcal/mol (12.2 calculated vs. 12.8 experimental) of a value estimated from experimental pKa values of the reacting species.