Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

Transposable elements as sources of variation in animals and plants

A tremendous wealth of data is accumulating on the variety and distribution of transposable elements (TEs) in natural populations. There is little doubt that TEs provide new genetic variation on a scale, and with a degree of sophistication, previously unimagined. There are many examples of mutations and other types of genetic variation associated with the activity of mobile elements. Mutant phenotypes range from subtle changes in tissue specificity to dramatic alterations in the development and organization of tissues and organs. Such changes can occur because of insertions in coding regions, but the more sophisticated TE-mediated changes are more often the result of insertions into 5′ flanking regions and introns. Here, TE-induced variation is viewed from three evolutionary perspectives that are not mutually exclusive. First, variation resulting from the intrinsic parasitic nature of TE activity is examined. Second, we describe possible coadaptations between elements and their hosts that appear to have evolved because of selection to reduce the deleterious effects of new insertions on host fitness. Finally, some possible cases are explored in which the capacity of TEs to generate variation has been exploited by their hosts. The number of well documented cases in which element sequences appear to confer useful traits on the host, although small, is growing rapidly.

Different sources of reduced carbon contribute to form three classes of terpenoid emitted by Quercus ilex L. leaves.

Quercus ilex L. leaves emit terpenes but do not have specialized structures for terpene storage. We exploited this unique feature to investigate terpene biosynthesis in intact leaves of Q. ilex. Light induction allowed us to distinguish three classes of terpenes: (i) a rapidly induced class including alpha-pinene; (ii) a more slowly induced class, including cis-beta-ocimene; and (iii) the most slowly induced class, including 3-methyl-3-buten-1-ol. Using 13C, we found that alpha-pinene and cis-beta-ocimene were labeled quickly and almost completely while there was a delay before label appeared in linalool and 3-methyl-3-buten-1-ol. The acetyl group of 3-methyl-3-buten-1-yl acetate was labeled quickly but label was limited to 20% of the moiety. It is suggested that the ocimene class of monoterpenes is made from one or more terpenes of the alpha-pinene class and that both classes are made entirely from reduced carbon pools inside the chloroplasts. Linalool and 3-methyl-3-buten-1-ol are made from a different pool of reduced carbon, possibly in nonphotosynthetic plastids. The acetyl group of the 3-methyl-3-buten-1-yl acetate is derived mostly from carbon that does not participate in photosynthetic reactions. Low humidity and prolonged exposure to light favored ocimenes emission and induced linalool emission. This may indicate conversion between terpene classes.

The challenge of paleoecological stasis: reassessing sources of evolutionary stability.

The paleontological record of the lower and middle Paleozoic Appalachian foreland basin demonstrates an unprecedented level of ecological and morphological stability on geological time scales. Some 70-80% of fossil morphospecies within assemblages persist in similar relative abundances in coordinated packages lasting as long as 7 million years despite evidence for environmental change and biotic disturbances. These intervals of stability are separated by much shorter periods of ecological and evolutionary change. This pattern appears widespread in the fossil record. Existing concepts of the evolutionary process are unable to explain this uniquely paleontological observation of faunawide coordinated stasis. A principle of evolutionary stability that arises from the ecosystem is explored here. We propose that hierarchical ecosystem theory, when extended to geological time scales, can explain long-term paleoecological stability as the result of ecosystem organization in response to high-frequency disturbance. The accompanying stability of fossil morphologies results from "ecological locking," in which selection is seen as a high-rate response of populations that is hierarchically constrained by lower-rate ecological processes. When disturbance exceeds the capacity of the system, ecological crashes remove these higher-level constraints, and evolution is free to proceed at high rates of directional selection during the organization of a new stable ecological hierarchy.