Natal origins of migratory monarch butterflies at wintering colonies in Mexico: New isotopic evidence

Each year, millions of monarch butterflies from eastern North America migrate to overwinter in 10–13 discrete colonies located in the Oyamel forests of central Mexico. For decades efforts to track monarch migration have relied on observations and tag-recapture methods, culminating with the discovery of the wintering colonies in 1975. Monarch tag returns from Mexico, however, are few and primarily from two accessible colonies, and therefore tag-recapture techniques have not quantified natal origins or distinctiveness among monarch populations at wintering sites. Such information would be invaluable in the conservation of the monarch and its migration phenomenon since the wintering sites currently are threatened by habitat alteration. Here we show that stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotope ratios of wintering monarchs can be used to evaluate natal origins on the summer breeding range. Stable-hydrogen and carbon isotopic values of 597 wintering monarchs from 13 wintering roost sites were compared with isotopic patterns measured in individuals at natal sites across their breeding range over a single migration cycle. We determined that all monarch wintering colonies were composed of individuals originating mainly from the Midwest, United States, thereby providing evidence for a panmictic model of wintering colony composition. However, two colonies showed more northerly origins, suggesting possible priority colonies for conservation efforts.

Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.