Mantle dynamics and seismic tomography

Three-dimensional imaging of the Earth's interior, called seismic tomography, has achieved breakthrough advances in the last two decades, revealing fundamental geodynamical processes throughout the Earth's mantle and core. Convective circulation of the entire mantle is taking place, with subducted oceanic lithosphere sinking into the lower mantle, overcoming the resistance to penetration provided by the phase boundary near 650-km depth that separates the upper and lower mantle. The boundary layer at the base of the mantle has been revealed to have complex structure, involving local stratification, extensive structural anisotropy, and massive regions of partial melt. The Earth's high Rayleigh number convective regime now is recognized to be much more interesting and complex than suggested by textbook cartoons, and continued advances in seismic tomography, geodynamical modeling, and high-pressure–high-temperature mineral physics will be needed to fully quantify the complex dynamics of our planet's interior.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.