Spatial scales of desert locust gregarization

Central to swarm formation in migratory locusts is a crowding-induced change from a “solitarious” to a “gregarious” phenotype. This change can occur within the lifetime of a single locust and accrues across generations. It represents an extreme example of phenotypic plasticity. We present computer simulations and a laboratory experiment that show how differences in resource distributions, conspicuous only at small spatial scales, can have significant effects on phase change at the population level; local spatial concentration of resource induces gregarization. Simulations also show that populations inhabiting a locally concentrated resource tend to change phase rapidly and synchronously in response to altered population densities. Our results show why information about the structure of resource at small spatial scales should become key components in monitoring and control strategies.

Predicting species diversity in tropical forests

A fundamental question in ecology is how many species occur within a given area. Despite the complexity and diversity of different ecosystems, there exists a surprisingly simple, approximate answer: the number of species is proportional to the size of the area raised to some exponent. The exponent often turns out to be roughly 1/4. This power law can be derived from assumptions about the relative abundances of species or from notions of self-similarity. Here we analyze the largest existing data set of location-mapped species: over one million, individually identified trees from five tropical forests on three continents. Although the power law is a reasonable, zeroth-order approximation of our data, we find consistent deviations from it on all spatial scales. Furthermore, tropical forests are not self-similar at areas ≤50 hectares. We develop an extended model of the species-area relationship, which enables us to predict large-scale species diversity from small-scale data samples more accurately than any other available method.