Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Global properties of the mapping between local amino acid sequence and local structure in proteins.

Local protein structure prediction efforts have consistently failed to exceed approximately 70% accuracy. We characterize the degeneracy of the mapping from local sequence to local structure responsible for this failure by investigating the extent to which similar sequence segments found in different proteins adopt similar three-dimensional structures. Sequence segments 3-15 residues in length from 154 different protein families are partitioned into neighborhoods containing segments with similar sequences using cluster analysis. The consistency of the sequence-to-structure mapping is assessed by comparing the local structures adopted by sequence segments in the same neighborhood in proteins of known structure. In the 154 families, 45% and 28% of the positions occur in neighborhoods in which one and two local structures predominate, respectively. The sequence patterns that characterize the neighborhoods in the first class probably include virtually all of the short sequence motifs in proteins that consistently occur in a particular local structure. These patterns, many of which occur in transitions between secondary structural elements, are an interesting combination of previously studied and novel motifs. The identification of sequence patterns that consistently occur in one or a small number of local structures in proteins should contribute to the prediction of protein structure from sequence.

Sex proportions of Haemoproteus blood parasites and local mate competition.

Recent genetic evidence suggests that parasitic protozoa often reproduce by "selfing," defined as sexual stages from a single, clonal lineage fertilizing each other. Selfing favors production of an excess of female over male progeny. We tested whether the proportion of male gametocytes of blood parasites of the genus Haemoproteus was affected by variables that could influence the probability of selfing. Proportions of male Haemoproteus gametocytes from 11 passerine host populations were not affected by the age of the parasites' avian hosts, date in season, sex of host, intensity of host's infection, or prevalence of parasites within host populations.