A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California.

Predictions of earthquakes that are based on observations of precursory seismicity cannot depend on the average properties of the seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. Instead it must depend on the fluctuations in seismicity. We summarize the observational data of the fluctuations of seismicity in space, in time, and in a coupled space-time regime over the past 60 yr in Southern California, to provide a basis for determining whether these fluctuations are correlated with the times and locations of future strong earthquakes in an appropriate time- and space-scale. The simple extrapolation of the G-R distribution must lead to an overestimate of the risk due to large earthquakes. There may be two classes of earthquakes: the small earthquakes that satisfy the G-R law and the larger and large ones. Most observations of fluctuations of seismicity are of the rate of occurrence of smaller earthquakes. Large earthquakes are observed to be preceded by significant quiescence on the faults on which they occur and by an intensification of activity at distance. It is likely that the fluctuations are due to the nature of fractures on individual faults of the network of faults. There are significant inhomogeneities on these faults, which we assume will have an important influence on the nature of self-organization of seismicity. The principal source of the inhomogeneity on the large scale is the influence of geometry--i.e., of the nonplanarity of faults and the system of faults.

Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

Multiple maternal origins and weak phylogeographic structure in domestic goats

Domestic animals have played a key role in human history. Despite their importance, however, the origins of most domestic species remain poorly understood. We assessed the phylogenetic history and population structure of domestic goats by sequencing a hypervariable segment (481 bp) of the mtDNA control region from 406 goats representing 88 breeds distributed across the Old World. Phylogeographic analysis revealed three highly divergent goat lineages (estimated divergence >200,000 years ago), with one lineage occurring only in eastern and southern Asia. A remarkably similar pattern exists in cattle, sheep, and pigs. These results, combined with recent archaeological findings, suggest that goats and other farm animals have multiple maternal origins with a possible center of origin in Asia, as well as in the Fertile Crescent. The pattern of goat mtDNA diversity suggests that all three lineages have undergone population expansions, but that the expansion was relatively recent for two of the lineages (including the Asian lineage). Goat populations are surprisingly less genetically structured than cattle populations. In goats only ≈10% of the mtDNA variation is partitioned among continents. In cattle the amount is ≥50%. This weak structuring suggests extensive intercontinental transportation of goats and has intriguing implications about the importance of goats in historical human migrations and commerce.

Incipient species formation in salamanders of the Ensatina complex

The Ensatina eschscholtzii complex of plethodontid salamanders, a well-known “ring species,” is thought to illustrate stages in the speciation process. Early research, based on morphology and coloration, has been extended by the incorporation of studies of protein variation and mitochondrial DNA sequences. The new data show that the complex includes a number of geographically and genetically distinct components that are at or near the species level. The complex is old and apparently has undergone instances of range contraction, isolation, differentiation, and then expansion and secondary contact. While the hypothesis that speciation is retarded by gene flow around the ring is not supported by molecular data, the general biogeographical hypothesis is supported. There is evidence of a north to south range expansion along two axes, with secondary contact and completion of the ring in southern California. Current research targets regions once thought to show primary intergradation, but which molecular markers reveal to be zones of secondary contact. Here emphasis is on the subspecies E. e. xanthoptica, which is involved in four distinct secondary contacts in central California. There is evidence of renewed genetic interactions upon recontact, with greater genetic differentiation within xanthoptica than between it and some of the interacting populations. The complex presents a full array of intermediate conditions between well-marked species and geographically variable populations. Geographically differentiated segments represent a diversity of depths of time of isolation and admixture, reflecting the complicated geomorphological history of California. Ensatina illustrates the continuing difficulty in making taxonomic assignments in complexes studied during species formation.

Heat effects on DNA repair after ionising radiation: hyperthermia commonly increases the number of non-repaired double-strand breaks and structural rearrangements

After ionising radiation double-strand breaks (dsb) are lethal if not repaired or misrepaired. Cell killing is greatly enhanced by hyperthermia and it is questioned here whether heat not only affects dsb repair capacity but also fidelity in a chromosomal context. dsb repair experiments were designed so as to mainly score non-homologous end joining, while homologous recombination was largely precluded. Human male G0 fibroblasts were either preheated (45°C, 20 min) or not before X-irradiation. dsb induction and repair were measured by conventional gel electrophoresis and an assay combining restriction digestion using a rare cutting enzyme (NotI) and Southern hybridisation, which detects large chromosomal rearrangements (>100 kb). dsb induction rate in an X-chromosomal NotI fragment was 4.8 × 10–3 dsb/Gy/Mb. Similar values were found for the genome overall and also when cells were preheated. After 50 Gy, fibroblasts were competent to largely restore the original restriction fragment size. Five per cent of dsb remained non-rejoined and 14% were misrejoined. Correct restitution of restriction fragments occurred preferably during the first hour but continued at a slow rate for 12–16 h. In addition, dsb appeared to misrejoin throughout the entire repair period. After hyperthermia the fractions of non-rejoined and misrejoined dsb were similarly increased to 13 and 51%, respectively. It is suggested that heat increases the probability of dsb being incorrectly rejoined but it is not likely to interfere with one dsb repair pathway in particular.

Geometric incompatibility in a fault system.

Interdependence between geometry of a fault system, its kinematics, and seismicity is investigated. Quantitative measure is introduced for inconsistency between a fixed configuration of faults and the slip rates on each fault. This measure, named geometric incompatibility (G), depicts summarily the instability near the fault junctions: their divergence or convergence ("unlocking" or "locking up") and accumulation of stress and deformations. Accordingly, the changes in G are connected with dynamics of seismicity. Apart from geometric incompatibility, we consider deviation K from well-known Saint Venant condition of kinematic compatibility. This deviation depicts summarily unaccounted stress and strain accumulation in the region and/or internal inconsistencies in a reconstruction of block- and fault system (its geometry and movements). The estimates of G and K provide a useful tool for bringing together the data on different types of movement in a fault system. An analog of Stokes formula is found that allows determination of the total values of G and K in a region from the data on its boundary. The phenomenon of geometric incompatibility implies that nucleation of strong earthquakes is to large extent controlled by processes near fault junctions. The junctions that have been locked up may act as transient asperities, and unlocked junctions may act as transient weakest links. Tentative estimates of K and G are made for each end of the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault system in Southern California. Recent strong earthquakes Landers (1992, M = 7.3) and Northridge (1994, M = 6.7) both reduced K but had opposite impact on G: Landers unlocked the area, whereas Northridge locked it up again.

Two Drosophila nervous system antigens, Nervana 1 and 2, are homologous to the beta subunit of Na+,K(+)-ATPase.

A nervous system-specific glycoprotein antigen from adult Drosophila heads, designated Nervana (Nrv), has been purified on the basis of reactivity of its carbohydrate epitope(s) with anti-horseradish peroxidase (HRP) antibodies that are specific markers for Drosophila neurons. Anti-Nrv monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), specific for the protein moiety of Nrv, were used to screen a Drosophila embryo cDNA expression library. Three cDNA clones (designated Nrv1, Nrv2.1, and Nrv2.2) were isolated that code for proteins recognized by anti-Nrv mAbs on Western blots. DNA sequencing and Southern blot analyses established that the cDNA clones are derived from two different genes. In situ hybridization to Drosophila polytene chromosomes showed that the cDNA clones map to the third chromosome near 92C-D. Nrv1 and Nrv2.1/2.2 have open reading frames of 309 and 322/323 amino acids, respectively, and they are 43.4% identical at the amino acid level. The proteins deduced from these clones exhibit significant homology in both primary sequence and predicted topology to the beta subunit of Na+,K(+)-ATPase. Immunoaffinity-purified Nrv is associated with a protein (M(r) 100,000) recognized on Western blots by anti-ATPase alpha-subunit mAb. Our results suggest that the Drosophila nervous system-specific antigens Nrv1 and -2 are neuronal forms of the beta subunit of Na+,K(+)-ATPase.