Variation in per capita interaction strength: Thresholds due to nonlinear dynamics and nonequilibrium conditions

I measured the strength of interaction between a marine herbivore and its growing resource over a realistic range of absolute and relative abundances. The herbivores (hermit crabs: Pagurus spp.) have slow and/or weak functional and numerical responses to epiphytic diatoms (Isthmia nervosa), which show logistic growth in the absence of consumers. By isolating this interaction in containers in the field, I mimicked many of the physical and biological variables characteristic of the intertidal while controlling the densities of focal species. The per capita effects of consumers on the population dynamics of their resource (i.e., interaction strength) were defined by using the relationship between hermit crab density and proportional change in the resource. When this relationship is fit by a Weibull function, a single parameter distinguishes constant interaction strength from one that varies as a function of density. Constant interaction strength causes the proportion of diatoms to fall linearly or proportionally as hermit crab density increases whereas per capita effects that increase with density cause an accelerating decline. Although many mathematical models of species interactions assume linear dynamics and invariant parameters, at least near equilibrium, the per capita effects of hermit crabs on diatoms varied substantially, apparently crossing a threshold from weak to strong when consumption exceeded resource production. This threshold separates a domain of coexistence from one of local extinction of the resource. Such thresholds may help explain trophic cascades, resource compensation, and context-dependent interaction strengths, while indicating a way to predict trophic effects, despite nonlinearities, as a function of vital rates.

Temporal variation, dormancy, and coexistence: A field test of the storage effect

Theoretical models suggest that overlapping generations, in combination with a temporally fluctuating environment, may allow the persistence of competitors that otherwise would not coexist. Despite extensive theoretical development, this “storage effect” hypothesis has received little empirical attention. Herein I present the first explicit mathematical analysis of the contribution of the storage effect to the dynamics of competing natural populations. In Oneida Lake, NY, data collected over the past 30 years show a striking negative correlation between the water-column densities of two species of suspension-feeding zooplankton, Daphnia galeata mendotae and Daphnia pulicaria. I have demonstrated competition between these two species and have shown that both possess long-lived eggs that establish overlapping generations. Moreover, recruitment to this long-lived stage varies annually, so that both daphnids have years in which they are favored (for recruitment) relative to their competitor. When the long-term population growth rates are calculated both with and without the effects of a variable environment, I show that D. galeata mendotae clearly cannot persist without the environmental variation and prolonged dormancy (i.e., storage effect) whereas D. pulicaria persists through consistently high per capita recruitment to the long-lived stage.

On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO2 emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO2 emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.

Assisting developing countries toward food self-reliance

Per capita food availability in the developing world has increased by 20% since the early 1960s, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, and today the world has twice as many people but 150 million fewer hungry people than in 1960. The world agricultural system has not done too bad a job over the past 35 years. It is likely that global agricultural production will continue to at least match growth in food demand over the next decade, assuming no major weather anomalies. Continued support of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research and programs involving U.S. universities is important to sharing knowledge about agriculture with colleagues in the developing world. This paper explores the reasons for providing agricultural development assistance, the benefits to the United States that come from doing so, and the special challenges facing the world over the next few decades.

The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.