Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Hydrophobic moments of protein structures: Spatially profiling the distribution

It is generally accepted that globular proteins fold with a hydrophobic core and a hydrophilic exterior. Might the spatial distribution of amino acid hydrophobicity exhibit common features? The hydrophobic profile detailing this distribution from the protein interior to exterior has been examined for 30 relatively diverse structures obtained from the Protein Data Bank, for 3 proteins of the 30S ribosomal subunit, and for a simple set of 14 decoys. A second-order hydrophobic moment has provided a simple measure of the spatial variation. Shapes of the calculated spatial profiles of all native structures have been found to be comparable. Consequently, profile shapes as well as particular profile features should assist in validating predicted protein structures and in discriminating between different protein-folding pathways. The spatial profiles of the 14 decoys are clearly distinguished from the profiles of their native structures.

Primary structure and tissue distribution of the orphanin FQ precursor.

The heptadecapeptide orphanin FQ (OFQ) is a recently discovered neuropeptide that exhibits structural features reminiscent of the opioid peptides and that is an endogenous ligand to a G protein-coupled receptor sequentially related to the opioid receptors. We have cloned both the human and rat cDNAs encoding the OFQ precursor proteins, to investigate whether the sequence relationships existing between the opioid and OFQ systems are also found at the polypeptide precursor level, in particular whether the OFQ precursor would encode several bioactive peptides as do the opioid precursors, and to study the regional distribution of OFQ sites of synthesis. The entire precursor protein displays structural homology to the opioid peptide precursors, especially preprodynorphin and preproenkephalin. The predicted amino acid sequence of the OFQ precursor contains a putative signal peptide and one copy of the OFQ sequence flanked by pairs of basic amino acid residues. Carboxyl-terminal to the OFQ sequence, the human and rat precursors contain a stretch of 28 amino acids that is 100% conserved and thus may encode novel bioactive peptides. Two peptides derived from this stretch were synthesized but were found to be unable to activate the OFQ receptor, suggesting that if they are produced in vivo, these peptides would likely recognize receptors different from the OFQ receptor. To begin analyzing the sites of OFQ mRNA synthesis, Northern analysis of human and rat tissues were carried out and showed that the OFQ precursor mRNA is mainly expressed in the brain. In situ hybridization of rat brain slices demonstrated a regional distribution pattern of the OFQ precursor mRNA, which is distinct from that of the opioid peptide precursors. These data confirm that the OFQ system differs from the opioid system at the molecular level, although the OFQ and opioid precursors may have arisen from a common ancestral gene.