Mutation rates among RNA viruses

The rate of spontaneous mutation is a key parameter in modeling the genetic structure and evolution of populations. The impact of the accumulated load of mutations and the consequences of increasing the mutation rate are important in assessing the genetic health of populations. Mutation frequencies are among the more directly measurable population parameters, although the information needed to convert them into mutation rates is often lacking. A previous analysis of mutation rates in RNA viruses (specifically in riboviruses rather than retroviruses) was constrained by the quality and quantity of available measurements and by the lack of a specific theoretical framework for converting mutation frequencies into mutation rates in this group of organisms. Here, we describe a simple relation between ribovirus mutation frequencies and mutation rates, apply it to the best (albeit far from satisfactory) available data, and observe a central value for the mutation rate per genome per replication of μg ≈ 0.76. (The rate per round of cell infection is twice this value or about 1.5.) This value is so large, and ribovirus genomes are so informationally dense, that even a modest increase extinguishes the population.

Microsatellite variability and genetic distances.

We analyze the within- and between-population dynamics of the distribution of the number of repeats at multiple microsatellite DNA loci subject to stepwise mutation. Analytical expressions for moments up to the fourth order within a locus and the variance of between-locus variance at mutation-drift equilibrium have been obtained. These statistics may be used to test the appropriateness of the one-step mutation model and to detect between-locus variation in the mutation rate. Published data are compatible with the one-step mutation model, although they do not reject the two-step model. Using both multinomial sampling and diffusion approximations for the analysis of the genetic distance introduced by Goldstein et al. [Goldstein, D. B., Linares, A. R., Cavalli-Sforza, L. L. & Feldman, M. W. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 6723-6727], we show that this distance follows a chi 2 distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of loci when there is no variation in mutation rates among the loci. In the presence of such variation, the variance of the distance is obtained. We conclude that the number of microsatellite loci required for the construction of phylogenetic trees with reliable branch lengths may be several hundred. Also, mutations that change repeat scores by several units, even though extremely rare, may dramatically influence estimates of population parameters.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.