An epidemic of tuberculosis with a high rate of tuberculin anergy among a population previously unexposed to tuberculosis, the Yanomami Indians of the Brazilian Amazon

A survey of an emerging tuberculosis epidemic among the Yanomami Indians of the Amazonian rain forest provided a unique opportunity to study the impact of tuberculosis on a population isolated from contact with the tubercle bacillus for millennia until the mid-1960s. Within the Yanomami population, an extraordinary high prevalence of active tuberculosis (6.4% of 625 individuals clinically examined) was observed, indicating a high susceptibility to disease, even among bacille Calmette–Guérin-vaccinated individuals. Observational studies on cell-mediated and humoral immune responses of the Yanomami Indians compared with contemporary residents of the region suggest profound differences in immunological responsiveness to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Among the Yanomami, a very high prevalence of tuberculin skin test anergy was found. Of patients with active tuberculosis, 46% had purified protein derivative of tuberculosis reactions <10 mm; similarly 58% of recent bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccines exhibited skin test reactions <5 mm. The Yanomami also had higher titers of antibodies against M. tuberculosis glycolipid antigens (>70%) than the control subjects comprised of Brazilians of European descent (14%). The antibodies were mostly of the IgM isotype. Among the tuberculosis patients who also produced IgG antibodies, the titers of IgG4 were significantly higher among the Yanomami than in the control population. Although it was not possible to analyze T-cell responses or patterns of lymphokine production in vitro because of the remoteness of the villages from laboratory facilities, the results suggest that the first encounter of the Yanomami Indian population with tuberculosis engenders a diminished cell-mediated immune response and an increased production antibody responses, relative to other populations with extensive previous contact with the pathogen. These findings suggest that tuberculosis may represent a powerful selective pressure on human evolution that over centuries has shaped the nature of human immune responses to infection.

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.