Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.

Accurate reconstruction of a known HIV-1 transmission history by phylogenetic tree analysis.

Phylogenetic analyses are increasingly used in attempts to clarify transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), but there is a continuing discussion about their validity because convergent evolution and transmission of minor HIV variants may obscure epidemiological patterns. Here we have studied a unique HIV-1 transmission cluster consisting of nine infected individuals, for whom the time and direction of each virus transmission was exactly known. Most of the transmissions occurred between 1981 and 1983, and a total of 13 blood samples were obtained approximately 2-12 years later. The p17 gag and env V3 regions of the HIV-1 genome were directly sequenced from uncultured lymphocytes. A true phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the knowledge about when the transmissions had occurred and when the samples were obtained. This complex, known HIV-1 transmission history was compared with reconstructed molecular trees, which were calculated from the DNA sequences by several commonly used phylogenetic inference methods [Fitch-Margoliash, neighbor-joining, minimum-evolution, maximum-likelihood, maximum-parsimony, unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages (UPGMA), and a Fitch-Margoliash method assuming a molecular clock (KITSCH)]. A majority of the reconstructed trees were good estimates of the true phylogeny; 12 of 13 taxa were correctly positioned in the most accurate trees. The choice of gene fragment was found to be more important than the choice of phylogenetic method and substitution model. However, methods that are sensitive to unequal rates of change performed more poorly (such as UPGMA and KITSCH, which assume a constant molecular clock). The rapidly evolving V3 fragment gave better reconstructions than p17, but a combined data set of both p17 and V3 performed best. The accuracy of the phylogenetic methods justifies their use in HIV-1 research and argues against convergent evolution and selective transmission of certain virus variants.

Maternal plasma human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA level: a determinant and projected threshold for mother-to-child transmission.

To prevent mother-to-child human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission, it is important to identify its determinants. Because HIV-1 RNA levels can be reduced by antiviral therapy, we examined the role of maternal plasma HIV-1 RNA level in mother-to-child transmission. We used quantitative competitive PCR to measure HIV-RNA in 30 infected pregnant women and then followed their infants prospectively; 27% of the women transmitted HIV-1 to their infants and maternal plasma HIV-1 RNA level correlated strikingly with transmission. Eight of the 10 women with the highest HIV-1 RNA levels at delivery (190,400-1,664,100 copies per ml of plasma) transmitted, while none of the 20 women with lower levels (500-155,800 copies per ml) did (P = 0.0002). Statistical analysis of the distribution of HIV-1 RNA loads in these 30 women projected a threshold for mother-to-child transmission in a larger population; the probability of a woman with a viral RNA level of < or = 100,000 copies per ml not transmitting is predicted to be 97%. Examination of serial HIV-1 RNA levels during pregnancy showed that viral load was stable in women who did not initiate or change antiviral therapy. These data identify maternal plasma HIV-1-RNA level as a major determinant of mother-to-child transmission and suggest that quantitation of HIV-1 RNA may predict the risk of transmission.