Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Y chromosome polymorphism is a strong determinant of male fitness in Drosophila melanogaster

In many species, the Y (or W) chromosome carries relatively few functional genes. This observation motivates the null hypothesis that the Y will be a minor contributor to genetic variation for fitness. Previous data and theory supported the null hypothesis, but evidence presented here shows that the Y of Drosophila melanogaster is a major determinant of a male's total fitness, with standing genetic variation estimated to be 68% of that of an entire X/autosome genomic haplotype. Most Y-linked genes are expressed during spermatogenesis, and correspondingly, we found that the Y influences fitness primarily through its effect on a male's reproductive success (sperm competition and/or mating success) rather than his egg-to-adult viability. But the fitness of a Y highly depended on the genetic makeup of its bearer, reverting from high to low in different genetic backgrounds. This pattern leads to large epistatic (inconsistent among backgrounds) but no additive (consistent among backgrounds) Y-linked genetic variance for fitness. On a microevolutionary scale, the observed large epistatic variation on the Y substantially reduces heritable variation for fitness among males, and on a macroevolutionary scale, the Y produces strong selection for genomic rearrangements that move interacting genes onto the nonrecombining region of the Y.

Defective γ-aminobutyric acid type B receptor-activated inwardly rectifying K+ currents in cerebellar granule cells isolated from weaver and Girk2 null mutant mice

Stimulation of inhibitory neurotransmitter receptors, such as γ-aminobutyric acid type B (GABAB) receptors, activates G protein-gated inwardly rectifying K+ channels (GIRK) which, in turn, influence membrane excitability. Seizure activity has been reported in a Girk2 null mutant mouse lacking GIRK2 channels but showing normal cerebellar development as well as in the weaver mouse, which has mutated GIRK2 channels and shows abnormal development. To understand how the function of GIRK2 channels differs in these two mutant mice, we compared the G protein-activated inwardly rectifying K+ currents in cerebellar granule cells isolated from Girk2 null mutant and weaver mutant mice with those from wild-type mice. Activation of GABAB receptors in wild-type granule cells induced an inwardly rectifying K+ current, which was sensitive to pertussis toxin and inhibited by external Ba2+ ions. The amplitude of the GABAB receptor-activated current was severely attenuated in granule cells isolated from both weaver and Girk2 null mutant mice. By contrast, the G protein-gated inwardly rectifying current and possibly the agonist-independent basal current appeared to be less selective for K+ ions in weaver but not Girk2 null mutant granule cells. Our results support the hypothesis that a nonselective current leads to the weaver phenotype. The loss of GABAB receptor-activated GIRK current appears coincident with the absence of GIRK2 channel protein and the reduction of GIRK1 channel protein in the Girk2 null mutant mouse, suggesting that GABAB receptors couple to heteromultimers composed of GIRK1 and GIRK2 channel subunits.

Horizontal gene transfer among genomes: The complexity hypothesis

Increasingly, studies of genes and genomes are indicating that considerable horizontal transfer has occurred between prokaryotes. Extensive horizontal transfer has occurred for operational genes (those involved in housekeeping), whereas informational genes (those involved in transcription, translation, and related processes) are seldomly horizontally transferred. Through phylogenetic analysis of six complete prokaryotic genomes and the identification of 312 sets of orthologous genes present in all six genomes, we tested two theories describing the temporal flow of horizontal transfer. We show that operational genes have been horizontally transferred continuously since the divergence of the prokaryotes, rather than having been exchanged in one, or a few, massive events that occurred early in the evolution of prokaryotes. In agreement with earlier studies, we found that differences in rates of evolution between operational and informational genes are minimal, suggesting that factors other than rate of evolution are responsible for the observed differences in horizontal transfer. We propose that a major factor in the more frequent horizontal transfer of operational genes is that informational genes are typically members of large, complex systems, whereas operational genes are not, thereby making horizontal transfer of informational gene products less probable (the complexity hypothesis).

Cyclin B2-null mice develop normally and are fertile whereas cyclin B1-null mice die in utero

Two B-type cyclins, B1 and B2, have been identified in mammals. Proliferating cells express both cyclins, which bind to and activate p34cdc2. To test whether the two B-type cyclins have distinct roles, we generated lines of transgenic mice, one lacking cyclin B1 and the other lacking cyclin B2. Cyclin B1 proved to be an essential gene; no homozygous B1-null pups were born. In contrast, nullizygous B2 mice developed normally and did not display any obvious abnormalities. Both male and female cyclin B2-null mice were fertile, which was unexpected in view of the high levels and distinct patterns of expression of cyclin B2 during spermatogenesis. We show that the expression of cyclin B1 overlaps the expression of cyclin B2 in the mature testis, but not vice versa. Cyclin B1 can be found both on intracellular membranes and free in the cytoplasm, in contrast to cyclin B2, which is membrane-associated. These observations suggest that cyclin B1 may compensate for the loss of cyclin B2 in the mutant mice, and implies that cyclin B1 is capable of targeting the p34cdc2 kinase to the essential substrates of cyclin B2.

Transfer of human serum IgG to nonobese diabetic Igμnull mice reveals a role for autoantibodies in the loss of secretory function of exocrine tissues in Sjögren’s syndrome

The NOD (nonobese diabetic) mouse has been studied as an animal model for autoimmune insulin-dependent diabetes and Sjögren’s syndrome. NOD.Igμnull mice, which lack functional B lymphocytes, develop progressive histopathologic lesions of the submandibular and lachrymal glands similar to NOD mice, but in the absence of autoimmune insulitis and diabetes. Despite the focal appearance of T cells in salivary and lachrymal tissues, NOD.Igμnull mice fail to lose secretory function as determined by stimulation of the muscarinic/cholinergic receptor by the agonist pilocarpine, suggesting a role for B cell autoantibodies in mediating exocrine dryness. Infusion of purified serum IgG or F(ab′)2 fragments from parental NOD mice or human primary Sjögren’s syndrome patients, but not serum IgG from healthy controls, alters stimulated saliva production, an observation consistent with antibody binding to neural receptors. Furthermore, human patient IgG fractions competitively inhibited the binding of the muscarinic receptor agonist, [3H]quinuclidinyl benzilate, to salivary gland membranes. This autoantibody activity is lost after preadsorption with intact salivary cells. These findings indicate that autoantibodies play an important part in the functional impairment of secretory processes seen in connection with the autoimmune exocrinopathy of Sjögren’s syndrome.

Testing the Cambrian explosion hypothesis by using a molecular dating technique

Molecular studies have the potential to shed light on the origin of the animal phyla by providing independent estimates of the divergence times, but have been criticized for failing to account adequately for variation in rate of evolution. A method of dating divergence times from molecular data addresses the criticisms of earlier studies and provides more realistic, but wider, confidence intervals. The data are not compatible with the Cambrian explosion hypothesis as an explanation for the origin of metazoan phyla, and provide additional support for an extended period of Precambrian metazoan diversification.

Omega images at the active zone may be endocytotic rather than exocytotic: Implications for the vesicle hypothesis of transmitter release

A Ca2+-dependent synaptic vesicle-recycling pathway emanating from the plasma membrane adjacent to the dense body at the active zone has been demonstrated by blocking pinch-off of recycling membrane by using the Drosophila mutant, shibire. Exposure of wild-type Drosophila synapses to low Ca2+/high Mg2+ saline is shown here to block this active zone recycling pathway at the stage in which invaginations of the plasma membrane develop adjacent to the dense body. These observations, in combination with our previous demonstration that exposure to high Ca2+ causes “docked” vesicles to accumulate in the identical location where active zone endocytosis occurs, suggest the possibility that a vesicle-recycling pathway emanating from the active zone may exist that is stimulated by exposure to elevated Ca2+, thereby causing an increase in vesicle recycling, and is suppressed by exposure to low Ca2+ saline, thereby blocking newly forming vesicles at the invagination stage. The presence of a Ca2+-dependent endocytotic pathway at the active zone opens up the following possibilities: (i) electron microscopic omega-shaped images (and their equivalent, freeze fracture dimples) observed at the active zone adjacent to the dense body could represent endocytotic images (newly forming vesicles) rather than exocytotic images; (ii) vesicles observed attached to the plasma membrane adjacent to the dense body could represent newly formed vesicles rather than vesicles “docked” for release of transmitter.

Dictyostelium myosin II null mutant can still cap Con A receptors

Cross-linked antigens on the surface of a motile cell cap at the trailing end of the cell. In Dictyostelium discoideum, myosin II null mutants have previously been reported to be unable to cap Con A receptors, although they are able to locomote. This finding implicated myosin II as an essential component of the capping mechanism, although not of the machinery for locomotion. Here we show that myosin II null mutants do cap Con A receptors, albeit less efficiently than does wild type. This shows that cap formation is not absolutely dependent on myosin II and that a close mechanistic relationship between capping, particle movement, and cell migration may still exist.

Wheat cytosolic acetyl-CoA carboxylase complements an ACC1 null mutation in yeast

Spores harboring an ACC1 deletion derived from a diploid Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain, in which one copy of the entire ACC1 gene is replaced with a LEU2 cassette, fail to grow. A chimeric gene consisting of the yeast GAL10 promoter, yeast ACC1 leader, wheat cytosolic acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACCase) cDNA, and yeast ACC1 3′ tail was used to complement a yeast ACC1 mutation. The complementation demonstrates that active wheat ACCase can be produced in yeast. At low concentrations of galactose, the activity of the “wheat gene” driven by the GAL10 promoter is low and ACCase becomes limiting for growth, a condition expected to enhance transgenic yeast sensitivity to wheat ACCase-specific inhibitors. An aryloxyphenoxypropionate and two cyclohexanediones do not inhibit growth of haploid yeast strains containing the yeast ACC1 gene, but one cyclohexanedione inhibits growth of the gene-replacement strains at concentrations below 0.2 mM. In vitro, the activity of wheat cytosolic ACCase produced by the gene-replacement yeast strain is inhibited by haloxyfop and cethoxydim at concentrations above 0.02 mM. The activity of yeast ACCase is less affected. The wheat plastid ACCase in wheat germ extract is inhibited by all three herbicides at concentrations below 0.02 mM. Yeast gene-replacement strains will provide a convenient system for the study of plant ACCases.

A single amino acid substitution converts a carboxylesterase to an organophosphorus hydrolase and confers insecticide resistance on a blowfly

Resistance to organophosphorus (OP) insecticides is associated with decreased carboxylesterase activity in several insect species. It has been proposed that the resistance may be the result of a mutation in a carboxylesterase that simultaneously reduces its carboxylesterase activity and confers an OP hydrolase activity (the “mutant ali-esterase hypothesis”). In the sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina, the association is due to a change in a specific esterase isozyme, E3, which, in resistant flies, has a null phenotype on gels stained using standard carboxylesterase substrates. Here we show that an OP-resistant allele of the gene that encodes E3 differs at five amino acid replacement sites from a previously described OP-susceptible allele. Knowledge of the structure of a related enzyme (acetylcholinesterase) suggests that one of these substitutions (Gly137 → Asp) lies within the active site of the enzyme. The occurrence of this substitution is completely correlated with resistance across 15 isogenic strains. In vitro expression of two natural and two synthetic chimeric alleles shows that the Asp137 substitution alone is responsible for both the loss of E3’s carboxylesterase activity and the acquisition of a novel OP hydrolase activity. Modeling of Asp137 in the homologous position in acetylcholinesterase suggests that Asp137 may act as a base to orientate a water molecule in the appropriate position for hydrolysis of the phosphorylated enzyme intermediate.

Possible ecological risks of transgenic organism release when transgenes affect mating success: Sexual selection and the Trojan gene hypothesis

Widespread interest in producing transgenic organisms is balanced by concern over ecological hazards, such as species extinction if such organisms were to be released into nature. An ecological risk associated with the introduction of a transgenic organism is that the transgene, though rare, can spread in a natural population. An increase in transgene frequency is often assumed to be unlikely because transgenic organisms typically have some viability disadvantage. Reduced viability is assumed to be common because transgenic individuals are best viewed as macromutants that lack any history of selection that could reduce negative fitness effects. However, these arguments ignore the potential advantageous effects of transgenes on some aspect of fitness such as mating success. Here, we examine the risk to a natural population after release of a few transgenic individuals when the transgene trait simultaneously increases transgenic male mating success and lowers the viability of transgenic offspring. We obtained relevant life history data by using the small cyprinodont fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) as a model. Our deterministic equations predict that a transgene introduced into a natural population by a small number of transgenic fish will spread as a result of enhanced mating advantage, but the reduced viability of offspring will cause eventual local extinction of both populations. Such risks should be evaluated with each new transgenic animal before release.

Further examination of the Xist promoter-switch hypothesis in X inactivation: Evidence against the existence and function of a P0 promoter

The onset of X inactivation coincides with accumulation of Xist RNA along the future inactive X chromosome. A recent hypothesis proposed that accumulation is initiated by a promoter switch within Xist. In this hypothesis, an upstream promoter (P0) produces an unstable transcript, while the known downstream promoter (P1) produces a stable RNA. To test this hypothesis, we examined expression and half-life of Xist RNA produced from an Xist transgene lacking P0 but retaining P1. We confirm the previous finding that P0 is dispensable for Xist expression in undifferentiated cells and that P1 can be used in both undifferentiated and differentiated cells. Herein, we show that Xist RNA initiated at P1 is unstable and does not accumulate. Further analysis indicates that the transcriptional boundary at P0 does not represent the 5′ end of a distinct Xist isoform. Instead, P0 is an artifact of cross-amplification caused by a pseudogene of the highly expressed ribosomal protein S12 gene Rps12. Using strand-specific techniques, we find that transcription upstream of P1 originates from the DNA strand opposite Xist and represents the 3′ end of the antisense Tsix RNA. Thus, these data do not support the existence of a P0 promoter and suggest that mechanisms other than switching of functionally distinct promoters control the up-regulation of Xist.

Ligand-dependent development of the endothelial and hemopoietic lineages from embryonic mesodermal cells expressing vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2

The existence of a common precursor for endothelial and hemopoietic cells, termed the hemangioblast, has been postulated since the beginning of the century. Recently, deletion of the endothelial-specific vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2) by gene targeting has shown that both endothelial and hemopoietic cells are absent in homozygous null mice. This observation suggested that VEGFR2 could be expressed by the hemangioblast and essential for its further differentiation along both lineages. However, it was not possible to exclude the hypothesis that hemopoietic failure was a secondary effect resulting from the absence of an endothelial cell microenvironment. To distinguish between these two hypotheses, we have produced a mAb directed against the extracellular domain of avian VEGFR2 and isolated VEGFR2+ cells from the mesoderm of chicken embryos at the gastrulation stage. We have found that in clonal cultures, a VEGFR2+ cell gives rise to either a hemopoietic or an endothelial cell colony. The developmental decision appears to be regulated by the binding of two different VEGFR2 ligands. Thus, endothelial differentiation requires VEGF, whereas hemopoietic differentiation occurs in the absence of VEGF and is significantly reduced by soluble VEGFR2, showing that this process could be mediated by a second, yet unidentified, VEGFR2 ligand. These observations thus suggest strongly that in the absence of the VEGFR2 gene product, the precursors of both hemopoietic and vascular endothelial lineages cannot survive. These cells therefore might be the initial targets of the VEGFR2 null mutation.

AP-2-null cells disrupt morphogenesis of the eye, face, and limbs in chimeric mice

The homozygous disruption of the mouse AP-2 gene yields a complex and lethal phenotype that results from defective development of the neural tube, head, and body wall. The severe and pleiotropic developmental abnormalities observed in the knockout mouse suggested that AP-2 may regulate several morphogenic pathways. To uncouple the individual developmental mechanisms that are dependent on AP-2, we have now analyzed chimeric mice composed of both wild-type and AP-2-null cells. The phenotypes obtained from these chimeras indicate that there is an independent requirement for AP-2 in the formation of the neural tube, body wall, and craniofacial skeleton. In addition, these studies reveal that AP-2 exerts a major influence on eye formation, which is a critical new role for AP-2 that was masked previously in the knockout mice. Furthermore, we also have uncovered an unexpected influence of AP-2 on limb pattern formation; this influence is typified by major limb duplications. The range of phenotypes observed in the chimeras displays a significant overlap with those caused by teratogenic levels of retinoic acid, strongly suggesting that AP-2 is an important component of the mechanism of action of this morphogen.