Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

Asian genotypes of JC virus in Native Americans and in a Pacific Island population: Markers of viral evolution and human migration

The human polyomavirus JC (JCV) causes the central nervous system demyelinating disease progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Previously, we showed that 40% of Caucasians in the United States excrete JCV in the urine as detected by PCR. We have now studied 68 Navaho from New Mexico, 25 Flathead from Montana, and 29 Chamorro from Guam. By using PCR amplification of a fragment of the VP1 gene, JCV DNA was detected in the urine of 45 (66%) Navaho, 14 (56%) Flathead, and 20 (69%) Chamorro. Genotyping of viral DNAs in these cohorts by cycle sequencing showed predominantly type 2 (Asian), rather than type 1 (European). Type 1 is the major type in the United States and Hungary. Type 2 can be further subdivided into 2A, 2B, and 2C. Type 2A is found in China and Japan. Type 2B is a subtype related to the East Asian type, and is now found in Europe and the United States. The large majority (56–89%) of strains excreted by Native Americans and Pacific Islanders were the type 2A subtype, consistent with the origin of these strains in Asia. These findings indicate that JCV infection of Native Americans predates contact with Europeans, and likely predates migration of Amerind ancestors across the Bering land bridge around 12,000–30,000 years ago. If JCV had already differentiated into stable modern genotypes and subtypes prior to first settlement, the origin of JCV in humans may date from 50,000 to 100,000 years ago or more. We conclude that JCV may have coevolved with the human species, and that it provides a convenient marker for human migrations in both prehistoric and modern times.