Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety

The utility of live attenuated vaccines for controlling HIV epidemics is being debated. Live attenuated HIV vaccines (LAHVs) could be extremely effective in protecting against infection with wild-type strains, but may not be completely safe as the attenuated strain could cause AIDS in some vaccinated individuals. We present a theoretical framework for evaluating the consequences of the tradeoff between vaccine efficacy (in terms of preventing new infections with wild-type strains) and safety (in terms of vaccine-induced AIDS deaths). We use our framework to predict, for Zimbabwe and Thailand, the epidemiological impact of 1,000 different (specified by efficacy and safety characteristics) LAHVs. We predict that paradoxically: (i) in Zimbabwe (where transmission is high) LAHVs would significantly decrease the AIDS death rate, but (ii) in Thailand (where transmission is low) exactly the same vaccines (in terms of efficacy and safety characteristics) would increase the AIDS death rate. Our results imply that a threshold transmission rate exists that determines whether any given LAHV has a beneficial or a detrimental impact. We also determine the vaccine perversity point, which is defined in terms of the fraction of vaccinated individuals who progress to AIDS as a result of the vaccine strain. Vaccination with any LAHV that causes more than 5% of vaccinated individuals to progress to AIDS in 25 years would, even 50 years later, lead to perversity (i.e., increase the annual AIDS death rate) in Thailand; these same vaccines would lead to decreases in the annual AIDS death rate in Zimbabwe.

Conditional reduction of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 replication by a gain-of-herpes simplex virus 1 thymidine kinase function.

The development of an effective vaccine for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) would be a major advance toward controlling the AIDS pandemic. Several disparate strategies for a safe and effective HIV vaccine have been proposed. Recent data suggest that loss-of-function live-attenuated virus could be a safe lentivirus vaccine. Here, we propose a gain-of-function approach that can complement loss-of-function in enhancing the safety profile of a live-attenuated virus. We describe an example in which ganciclovir (GCV) was used to treat effectively nef(-)HIV-1 engineered to express herpes simplex virus (HSV-1) thymidine kinase (TK). This treatment was found to be highly efficient in controlling HIV-1 spread in tissue culture and in a small animal (hu-PBL-SCID) model. We demonstrate that one distinct advantage of GCV-HSV-TK treatment is the elimination of integrated proviruses, a goal not easily achieved with other antiretrovirals.