Coalescent estimates of HIV-1 generation time in vivo

The generation time of HIV Type 1 (HIV-1) in vivo has previously been estimated using a mathematical model of viral dynamics and was found to be on the order of one to two days per generation. Here, we describe a new method based on coalescence theory that allows the estimate of generation times to be derived by using nucleotide sequence data and a reconstructed genealogy of sequences obtained over time. The method is applied to sequences obtained from a long-term nonprogressing individual at five sampling occasions. The estimate of viral generation time using the coalescent method is 1.2 days per generation and is close to that obtained by mathematical modeling (1.8 days per generation), thus strengthening confidence in estimates of a short viral generation time. Apart from the estimation of relevant parameters relating to viral dynamics, coalescent modeling also allows us to simulate the evolutionary behavior of samples of sequences obtained over time.

Effects of sampling standardization on estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversification

Global diversity curves reflect more than just the number of taxa that have existed through time: they also mirror variation in the nature of the fossil record and the way the record is reported. These sampling effects are best quantified by assembling and analyzing large numbers of locality-specific biotic inventories. Here, we introduce a new database of this kind for the Phanerozoic fossil record of marine invertebrates. We apply four substantially distinct analytical methods that estimate taxonomic diversity by quantifying and correcting for variation through time in the number and nature of inventories. Variation introduced by the use of two dramatically different counting protocols also is explored. We present sampling-standardized diversity estimates for two long intervals that sum to 300 Myr (Middle Ordovician-Carboniferous; Late Jurassic-Paleogene). Our new curves differ considerably from traditional, synoptic curves. For example, some of them imply unexpectedly low late Cretaceous and early Tertiary diversity levels. However, such factors as the current emphasis in the database on North America and Europe still obscure our view of the global history of marine biodiversity. These limitations will be addressed as the database and methods are refined.

Viral dynamics in vivo: limitations on estimates of intracellular delay and virus decay.

Anti-viral drug treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections causes rapid reduction in plasma virus load. Viral decline occurs in several phases and provides information on important kinetic constants of virus replication in vivo and pharmacodynamical properties. We develop a mathematical model that takes into account the intracellular phase of the viral life-cycle, defined as the time between infection of a cell and production of new virus particles. We derive analytic solutions for the dynamics following treatment with reverse transcriptase inhibitors, protease inhibitors, or a combination of both. For HIV-1, our results show that the phase of rapid decay in plasma virus (days 2-7) allows precise estimates for the turnover rate of productively infected cells. The initial quasi-stationary phase (days 0-1) and the transition phase (days 1-2) are explained by the combined effects of pharmacological and intracellular delays, the clearance of free virus particles, and the decay of infected cells. Reliable estimates of the first three quantities are not possible from data on virus load only; such estimates require additional measurements. In contrast with HIV-1, for HBV our model predicts that frequent early sampling of plasma virus will lead to reliable estimates of the free virus half-life and the pharmacological properties of the administered drug. On the other hand, for HBV the half-life of infected cells cannot be estimated from plasma virus decay.

Complete congruence between gene diversity estimates derived from genotypic data at enzyme and random amplified polymorphic DNA loci in black spruce.

Controversy still exists over the adaptive nature of variation of enzyme loci. In conifers, random amplified polymorphic DNAs (RAPDs) represent a class of marker loci that is unlikely to fall within or be strongly linked to coding DNA. We have compared the genetic diversity in natural populations of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] using genotypic data at allozyme loci and RAPD loci as well as phenotypic data from inferred RAPD fingerprints. The genotypic data for both allozymes and RAPDs were obtained from at least six haploid megagametophytes for each of 75 sexually mature individuals distributed in five populations. Heterozygosities and population fixation indices were in complete agreement between allozyme loci and RAPD loci. In black spruce, it is more likely that the similar levels of variation detected at both enzyme and RAPD loci are due to such evolutionary forces as migration and the mating system, rather than to balancing selection and overdominance. Furthermore, we show that biased estimates of expected heterozygosity and among-population differentiation are obtained when using allele frequencies derived from dominant RAPD phenotypes.

In vivo estimates of division and death rates of human T lymphocytes.

We present data on the decay, after radiotherapy, of naive and memory human T lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage. These data are analyzed in conjunction with existing data on the decay of naive and memory T lymphocytes with unstable chromosome damage and older data on unsorted lymphocytes. The analyses yield in vivo estimates for some life-history parameters of human T lymphocytes. Best estimates of proliferation rates have naive lymphocytes dividing once every 3.5 years and memory lymphocytes dividing once every 22 weeks. It appears that memory lymphocytes can revert to the naive phenotype, but only, on average, after 3.5 years in the memory class. The lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage decay very slowly, yielding surprisingly low estimates of their death rate. The estimated parameters are used in a simple mathematical model of the population dynamics of undamaged naive and memory lymphocytes. We use this model to illustrate that it is possible for the unprimed subset of a constantly stimulated clone to stay small, even when there is a large population of specific primed cells reverting to the unprimed state.