Cumulative risk adjusted mortality chart for detecting changes in death rate: observational study of heart surgery

Objective: To detect changes in mortality after surgery, with allowance being made for variations in case mix.

Blood pressure and mortality in elderly people aged 85 and older: community based study

Objective: To determine whether the inverse relation between blood pressure and all cause mortality in elderly people over 85 years of age can be explained by adjusting for health status, and to determine whether high blood pressure is a risk factor for mortality when the effects of poor health are accounted for.

Annual league tables of mortality in neonatal intensive care units: longitudinal study

Objective: To assess whether crude league tables of mortality and league tables of risk adjusted mortality accurately reflect the performance of hospitals.

Reduced fetal growth rate and increased risk of death from ischaemic heart disease: cohort study of 15 000 Swedish men and women born 1915-29

Objective: To establish whether fetal growth rate (as distinct from size at birth) is associated with mortality from ischaemic heart disease.

Allostatic load as a marker of cumulative biological risk: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a new conceptualization of cumulative biological burden exacted on the body through attempts to adapt to life's demands. Using a multisystem summary measure of AL, we evaluated its capacity to predict four categories of health outcomes, 7 years after a baseline survey of 1,189 men and women age 70–79. Higher baseline AL scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 7-year mortality as well as declines in cognitive and physical functioning and were marginally associated with incident cardiovascular disease events, independent of standard socio-demographic characteristics and baseline health status. The summary AL measure was based on 10 parameters of biological functioning, four of which are primary mediators in the cascade from perceived challenges to downstream health outcomes. Six of the components are secondary mediators reflecting primarily components of the metabolic syndrome (syndrome X). AL was a better predictor of mortality and decline in physical functioning than either the syndrome X or primary mediator components alone. The findings support the concept of AL as a measure of cumulative biological burden.

Prospective measurements of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in a cohort of elderly subjects: Relationship to gender, subjective health, smoking habits, and 10-year mortality

The decrease with age of the adrenal-secreted dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) in serum has suggested that it may be causally related to longevity. For the PAQUID [People (Personnes) Aged (Agées) About What (Quid, in Latin)] cohort of elderly subjects, we have previously reported higher DHEAS in men than in women, a decrease with age and, among men, a negative correlation between the DHEAS level and mortality at 2 and 4 years. Here, with an 8-year followup in 290 subjects, we show a global decrease of 2.3% per year for men and 3.9% per year for women. However, in approximately 30% of cases, there was an increase of DHEAS. We observed no relationship between the evolution of DHEAS level and functional, psychological, and mental status, possibly because of selection by death. In women, no association was found between mortality and DHEAS level. In men, the relative risk (RR) of death was higher for the lowest levels of DHEAS (RR = 1.9, P = 0.007), with RR = 6.5, P = 0.003 for those under 70 years old, a result indicating heterogeneity of the population. There was an effect of subjective health on mortality that disappeared after adjustment of DHEAS levels, suggesting its relation with these DHEAS levels. Death RR was much higher in smokers with a low DHEAS level than in nonsmokers with high DHEAS (RR = 6.7, P = 0.001). We submit that the involvement of DHEAS is possibly different according to gender, that association between low DHEAS level and mortality only for men under 70 years old possibly reflects heterogeneity of the population, and that DHEAS level is a reliable predictor of death in male smokers.

Adaptive plasticity in hatching age: a response to predation risk trade-offs.

The life histories of many animals are characterized by niche shifts, the timing of which can strongly affect fitness. In the tree frog Agalychnis callidryas, which has arboreal eggs, there is a trade-off between predation risks before and after hatching. When eggs are attacked by snakes, tadpoles escape by hatching rapidly and falling into the water below. Eggs not attacked by snakes hatch later, when newly emerged tadpoles are less vulnerable to aquatic predators. Plasticity in hatching allows embryos to use immediate, local information on risk of mortality to make instantaneous behavioral decisions about hatching and the accompanying shift from arboreal to aquatic habitats.