From cell death to embryo arrest: Mathematical models of human preimplantation embryo development

Human preimplantation embryos exhibit high levels of apoptotic cells and high rates of developmental arrest during the first week in vitro. The relation between the two is unclear and difficult to determine by conventional experimental approaches, partly because of limited numbers of embryos. We apply a mixture of experiment and mathematical modeling to show that observed levels of cell death can be reconciled with the high levels of embryo arrest seen in the human only if the developmental competence of embryos is already established at the zygote stage, and environmental factors merely modulate this. This suggests that research on improving in vitro fertilization success rates should move from its current concentration on optimizing culture media to focus more on the generation of a healthy zygote and on understanding the mechanisms that cause chromosomal and other abnormalities during early cleavage stages.

Mathematical analysis of activation thresholds in enzyme-catalyzed positive feedbacks: application to the feedbacks of blood coagulation.

A hierarchy of enzyme-catalyzed positive feedback loops is examined by mathematical and numerical analysis. Four systems are described, from the simplest, in which an enzyme catalyzes its own formation from an inactive precursor, to the most complex, in which two sequential feedback loops act in a cascade. In the latter we also examine the function of a long-range feedback, in which the final enzyme produced in the second loop activates the initial step in the first loop. When the enzymes generated are subject to inhibition or inactivation, all four systems exhibit threshold properties akin to excitable systems like neuron firing. For those that are amenable to mathematical analysis, expressions are derived that relate the excitation threshold to the kinetics of enzyme generation and inhibition and the initial conditions. For the most complex system, it was expedient to employ numerical simulation to demonstrate threshold behavior, and in this case long-range feedback was seen to have two distinct effects. At sufficiently high catalytic rates, this feedback is capable of exciting an otherwise subthreshold system. At lower catalytic rates, where the long-range feedback does not significantly affect the threshold, it nonetheless has a major effect in potentiating the response above the threshold. In particular, oscillatory behavior observed in simulations of sequential feedback loops is abolished when a long-range feedback is present.

Failure of programmed cell death and differentiation as causes of tumors: some simple mathematical models.

Most models of tumorigenesis assume that the tumor grows by increased cell division. In these models, it is generally supposed that daughter cells behave as do their parents, and cell numbers have clear potential for exponential growth. We have constructed simple mathematical models of tumorigenesis through failure of programmed cell death (PCD) or differentiation. These models do not assume that descendant cells behave as their parents do. The models predict that exponential growth in cell numbers does sometimes occur, usually when stem cells fail to die or differentiate. At other times, exponential growth does not occur: instead, the number of cells in the population reaches a new, higher equilibrium. This behavior is predicted when fully differentiated cells fail to undergo PCD. When cells of intermediate differentiation fail to die or to differentiate further, the values of growth parameters determine whether growth is exponential or leads to a new equilibrium. The predictions of the model are sensitive to small differences in growth parameters. Failure of PCD and differentiation, leading to a new equilibrium number of cells, may explain many aspects of tumor behavior--for example, early premalignant lesions such as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, the fact that some tumors very rarely become malignant, the observation of plateaux in the growth of some solid tumors, and, finally, long lag phases of growth until mutations arise that eventually result in exponential growth.

Simultaneous determination of helical unwinding angles and intrinsic association constants in ligand–DNA complexes: The interaction between DNA and calichearubicin B

We present a helical unwinding assay for reversibly binding DNA ligands that uses closed circular DNA, topoisomerase I (Topo I), and two-dimensional agarose gel electrophoresis. Serially diluted Topo I relaxation reactions at constant DNA/ligand ratio are performed, and the resulting apparent unwinding of the closed circular DNA is used to calculate both ligand unwinding angle (φ) and intrinsic association constant (Ka). Mathematical treatment of apparent unwinding is formally analogous to that of apparent extinction coefficient data for optical binding titrations. Extrapolation to infinite DNA concentration yields the true unwinding angle of a given ligand and its association constant under Topo I relaxation conditions. Thus this assay delivers simultaneous structural and thermodynamic information describing the ligand–DNA complex. The utility of this assay has been demonstrated by using calichearubicin B (CRB), a synthetic hybrid molecule containing the anthraquinone chromophore of (DA) and the carbohydrate domain of calicheamicin γ1I. The unwinding angle for CRB calculated by this method is −5.3 ± 0.5°. Its Ka value is 0.20 × 106 M−1. For comparison, the unwinding angles of ethidium bromide and DA have been independently calculated, and the results are in agreement with canonical values for these compounds. Although a stronger binder to selected sites, CRB is a less potent unwinder than its parent compound DA. The assay requires only small amounts of ligand and offers an attractive option for analysis of DNA binding by synthetic and natural compounds.

Solution of the pulse width modulation problem using orthogonal polynomials and Korteweg-de Vries equations

The mathematical underpinning of the pulse width modulation (PWM) technique lies in the attempt to represent “accurately” harmonic waveforms using only square forms of a fixed height. The accuracy can be measured using many norms, but the quality of the approximation of the analog signal (a harmonic form) by a digital one (simple pulses of a fixed high voltage level) requires the elimination of high order harmonics in the error term. The most important practical problem is in “accurate” reproduction of sine-wave using the same number of pulses as the number of high harmonics eliminated. We describe in this paper a complete solution of the PWM problem using Padé approximations, orthogonal polynomials, and solitons. The main result of the paper is the characterization of discrete pulses answering the general PWM problem in terms of the manifold of all rational solutions to Korteweg-de Vries equations.

Temporal variation, dormancy, and coexistence: A field test of the storage effect

Theoretical models suggest that overlapping generations, in combination with a temporally fluctuating environment, may allow the persistence of competitors that otherwise would not coexist. Despite extensive theoretical development, this “storage effect” hypothesis has received little empirical attention. Herein I present the first explicit mathematical analysis of the contribution of the storage effect to the dynamics of competing natural populations. In Oneida Lake, NY, data collected over the past 30 years show a striking negative correlation between the water-column densities of two species of suspension-feeding zooplankton, Daphnia galeata mendotae and Daphnia pulicaria. I have demonstrated competition between these two species and have shown that both possess long-lived eggs that establish overlapping generations. Moreover, recruitment to this long-lived stage varies annually, so that both daphnids have years in which they are favored (for recruitment) relative to their competitor. When the long-term population growth rates are calculated both with and without the effects of a variable environment, I show that D. galeata mendotae clearly cannot persist without the environmental variation and prolonged dormancy (i.e., storage effect) whereas D. pulicaria persists through consistently high per capita recruitment to the long-lived stage.

Molecular keys to speciation: DNA polymorphism and the control of genetic exchange in enterobacteria

Speciation involves the establishment of genetic barriers between closely related organisms. The extent of genetic recombination is a key determinant and a measure of genetic isolation. The results reported here reveal that genetic barriers can be established, eliminated, or modified by manipulating two systems which control genetic recombination, SOS and mismatch repair. The extent of genetic isolation between enterobacteria is a simple mathematical function of DNA sequence divergence. The function does not depend on hybrid DNA stability, but rather on the number of blocks of sequences identical in the two mating partners and sufficiently large to allow the initiation of recombination. Further, there is no obvious discontinuity in the function that could be used to define a level of divergence for distinguishing species.

The influence of the flow of the reacting gas on the conditions for a thermal explosion

The classical problem of thermal explosion is modified so that the chemically active gas is not at rest but is flowing in a long cylindrical pipe. Up to a certain section the heat-conducting walls of the pipe are held at low temperature so that the reaction rate is small and there is no heat release; at that section the ambient temperature is increased and an exothermic reaction begins. The question is whether a slow reaction regime will be established or a thermal explosion will occur. The mathematical formulation of the problem is presented. It is shown that when the pipe radius is larger than a critical value, the solution of the new problem exists only up to a certain distance along the axis. The critical radius is determined by conditions in a problem with a uniform axial temperature. The loss of existence is interpreted as a thermal explosion; the critical distance is the safe reactor’s length. Both laminar and developed turbulent flow regimes are considered. In a computational experiment the loss of the existence appears as a divergence of a numerical procedure; numerical calculations reveal asymptotic scaling laws with simple powers for the critical distance.

The epidemiology of antibiotic resistance in hospitals: Paradoxes and prescriptions

A simple mathematical model of bacterial transmission within a hospital was used to study the effects of measures to control nosocomial transmission of bacteria and reduce antimicrobial resistance in nosocomial pathogens. The model predicts that: (i) Use of an antibiotic for which resistance is not yet present in a hospital will be positively associated at the individual level (odds ratio) with carriage of bacteria resistant to other antibiotics, but negatively associated at the population level (prevalence). Thus inferences from individual risk factors can yield misleading conclusions about the effect of antibiotic use on resistance to another antibiotic. (ii) Nonspecific interventions that reduce transmission of all bacteria within a hospital will disproportionately reduce the prevalence of colonization with resistant bacteria. (iii) Changes in the prevalence of resistance after a successful intervention will occur on a time scale of weeks to months, considerably faster than in community-acquired infections. Moreover, resistance can decline rapidly in a hospital even if it does not carry a fitness cost. The predictions of the model are compared with those of other models and published data. The implications for resistance control and study design are discussed, along with the limitations and assumptions of the model.

Coalescent estimates of HIV-1 generation time in vivo

The generation time of HIV Type 1 (HIV-1) in vivo has previously been estimated using a mathematical model of viral dynamics and was found to be on the order of one to two days per generation. Here, we describe a new method based on coalescence theory that allows the estimate of generation times to be derived by using nucleotide sequence data and a reconstructed genealogy of sequences obtained over time. The method is applied to sequences obtained from a long-term nonprogressing individual at five sampling occasions. The estimate of viral generation time using the coalescent method is 1.2 days per generation and is close to that obtained by mathematical modeling (1.8 days per generation), thus strengthening confidence in estimates of a short viral generation time. Apart from the estimation of relevant parameters relating to viral dynamics, coalescent modeling also allows us to simulate the evolutionary behavior of samples of sequences obtained over time.

Estimation of evolutionary distances under stationary and nonstationary models of nucleotide substitution

Estimation of evolutionary distances has always been a major issue in the study of molecular evolution because evolutionary distances are required for estimating the rate of evolution in a gene, the divergence dates between genes or organisms, and the relationships among genes or organisms. Other closely related issues are the estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution, the estimation of the degree of rate variation among sites in a DNA sequence, and statistical testing of the molecular clock hypothesis. Mathematical treatments of these problems are considerably simplified by the assumption of a stationary process in which the nucleotide compositions of the sequences under study have remained approximately constant over time, and there now exist fairly extensive studies of stationary models of nucleotide substitution, although some problems remain to be solved. Nonstationary models are much more complex, but significant progress has been recently made by the development of the paralinear and LogDet distances. This paper reviews recent studies on the above issues and reports results on correcting the estimation bias of evolutionary distances, the estimation of the pattern of nucleotide substitution, and the estimation of rate variation among the sites in a sequence.

Mass vaccination to control chickenpox: the influence of zoster.

The impact of transmission events from patients with shingles (zoster) on the epidemiology of varicella is examined before and after the introduction of mass immunization by using a stochastic mathematical model of transmission dynamics. Reactivation of the virus is shown to damp stochastic fluctuations and move the dynamics toward simple annual oscillations. The force of infection due to zoster cases is estimated by comparison of simulated and observed incidence time series. The presence of infectious zoster cases reduces the tendency for mass immunization to increase varicella incidence at older ages when disease severity is typically greater.

State of the art in continuous speech recognition.

In the past decade, tremendous advances in the state of the art of automatic speech recognition by machine have taken place. A reduction in the word error rate by more than a factor of 5 and an increase in recognition speeds by several orders of magnitude (brought about by a combination of faster recognition search algorithms and more powerful computers), have combined to make high-accuracy, speaker-independent, continuous speech recognition for large vocabularies possible in real time, on off-the-shelf workstations, without the aid of special hardware. These advances promise to make speech recognition technology readily available to the general public. This paper focuses on the speech recognition advances made through better speech modeling techniques, chiefly through more accurate mathematical modeling of speech sounds.

Three-dimensional tracking of motile bacteria near a solid planar surface.

Knowing how motile bacteria move near and along a solid surface is crucial to understanding such diverse phenomena as the migration of infectious bacteria along a catheter, biofilm growth, and the movement of bacteria through the pore spaces of saturated soil, a critical step in the in situ bioremediation of contaminated aquifers. In this study, a tracking microscope is used to record the three-dimensional motion of Escherichia coli near a planar glass surface. Data from the tracking microscope are analyzed to quantify the effects of bacteria-surface interactions on the swimming behavior of bacteria. The speed of cells approaching the surface is found to decrease in agreement with the mathematical model of Ramia et al. [Ramia, M., Tullock, D. L. & Phan-Tien, N. (1993) Biophys J. 65,755-778], which represents the bacteria as spheres with a single polar flagellum rotating at a constant rate. The tendency of cells to swim adjacent to the surface is shown in computer-generated reproductions of cell traces. The attractive interaction potential between the cells and the solid surface is offered as one of several possible explanations for this tendency.

Sets of EcoRI fragments containing ribosomal RNA sequences are conserved among different strains of Listeria monocytogenes.

To classify Listeria monocytogenes using taxonomic characters derived from the rRNA operons and their flanking sequences, we studied a sample of 1346 strains within the taxon. DNA from each strain was digested with a restriction endonuclease, EcoRI. The fragments were separated by gel electrophoresis, immobilized on a membrane, and hybridized with a labeled rRNA operon from Escherichia coli. The pattern of bands, positions, and intensities of hybridized fragments were electronically captured. Software was used to normalize the band positions relative to standards, scale the signal intensity, and reduce the background so that each strain was reproducibly represented in a data base as a pattern. With these methods, L. monocytogenes was resolved into 50 pattern types differing in the length of at least one polymorphic fragment. Pattern types representing multiple strains were recorded as the mathematical average of the strain patterns. Pattern types were arranged by size polymorphisms of assigned rRNA regions into subsets, which revealed the branching genetic structure of the species. Subtracting the polymorphic variants of a specific assigned region from the pattern types and averaging the types within each subset resulted in reduced sets of conserved fragments that could be used to recognize strains of the species. Pattern types and reduced sets of conserved fragments were conserved among different strains of L. monocytogenes but were not observed in total among strains of other species.