The optimization principle in phylogenetic analysis tends to give incorrect topologies when the number of nucleotides or amino acids used is small

In the maximum parsimony (MP) and minimum evolution (ME) methods of phylogenetic inference, evolutionary trees are constructed by searching for the topology that shows the minimum number of mutational changes required (M) and the smallest sum of branch lengths (S), respectively, whereas in the maximum likelihood (ML) method the topology showing the highest maximum likelihood (A) of observing a given data set is chosen. However, the theoretical basis of the optimization principle remains unclear. We therefore examined the relationships of M, S, and A for the MP, ME, and ML trees with those for the true tree by using computer simulation. The results show that M and S are generally greater for the true tree than for the MP and ME trees when the number of nucleotides examined (n) is relatively small, whereas A is generally lower for the true tree than for the ML tree. This finding indicates that the optimization principle tends to give incorrect topologies when n is small. To deal with this disturbing property of the optimization principle, we suggest that more attention should be given to testing the statistical reliability of an estimated tree rather than to finding the optimal tree with excessive efforts. When a reliability test is conducted, simplified MP, ME, and ML algorithms such as the neighbor-joining method generally give conclusions about phylogenetic inference very similar to those obtained by the more extensive tree search algorithms.

A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

Recognition principle of the TAP transporter disclosed by combinatorial peptide libraries

Transport of peptides across the membrane of the endoplasmic reticulum for assembly with MHC class I molecules is an essential step in antigen presentation to cytotoxic T cells. This task is performed by the major histocompatibility complex-encoded transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP). Using a combinatorial approach we have analyzed the substrate specificity of human TAP at high resolution and in the absence of any given sequence context, revealing the contribution of each peptide residue in stabilizing binding to TAP. Human TAP was found to be highly selective with peptide affinities covering at least three orders of magnitude. Interestingly, the selectivity is not equally distributed over the substrate. Only the N-terminal three positions and the C-terminal residue are critical, whereas effects from other peptide positions are negligible. A major influence from the peptide backbone was uncovered by peptide scans and libraries containing d amino acids. Again, independent of peptide length, critical positions were clustered near the peptide termini. These approaches demonstrate that human TAP is selective, with residues determining the affinity located in distinct regions, and point to the role of the peptide backbone in binding to TAP. This binding mode of TAP has implications in an optimized repertoire selection and in a coevolution with the major histocompatibility complex/T cell receptor complex.

Cross-validated maximum likelihood enhances crystallographic simulated annealing refinement

Recently, the target function for crystallographic refinement has been improved through a maximum likelihood analysis, which makes proper allowance for the effects of data quality, model errors, and incompleteness. The maximum likelihood target reduces the significance of false local minima during the refinement process, but it does not completely eliminate them, necessitating the use of stochastic optimization methods such as simulated annealing for poor initial models. It is shown that the combination of maximum likelihood with cross-validation, which reduces overfitting, and simulated annealing by torsion angle molecular dynamics, which simplifies the conformational search problem, results in a major improvement of the radius of convergence of refinement and the accuracy of the refined structure. Torsion angle molecular dynamics and the maximum likelihood target function interact synergistically, the combination of both methods being significantly more powerful than each method individually. This is demonstrated in realistic test cases at two typical minimum Bragg spacings (dmin = 2.0 and 2.8 Å, respectively), illustrating the broad applicability of the combined method. In an application to the refinement of a new crystal structure, the combined method automatically corrected a mistraced loop in a poor initial model, moving the backbone by 4 Å.

Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

Factors affecting likelihood of applicants being offered a place in medical schools in the United Kingdom in 1996 and 1997: retrospective study

Objective To assess the relation between a range of measures and the likelihood of applicants to medical schools in the United Kingdom being offered a place overall and at each medical school, with particular emphasis on ethnic minority applicants.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

The hard-soft acid-base principle in enzymatic catalysis: dual reactivity of phosphoenolpyruvate.

In this paper, the chemical reactivity of C3 of phosphoenolpyruvate (PEP) has been analyzed in terms of density functional theory quantified through quantum chemistry calculations. PEP is involved in a number of important enzymatic reactions, in which its C3 atom behaves like a base. In three different enzymatic reactions analyzed here, C3 sometimes behaves like a soft base and sometimes behaves like a hard base in terms of the hard-soft acid-base principle. This dual nature of C3 of PEP was found to be related to the conformational change of the molecule. This leads to a testable hypothesis: that PEP adopts particular conformations in the enzyme-substrate complexes of different PEP-using enzymes, and that the enzymes control the reactivity through controlling the dihedral angle between the carboxylate and the C==C double bond of PEP.

The resource consumption principle: attention and memory in volumes of neural tissue.

In the cerebral cortex, the small volume of the extracellular space in relation to the volume enclosed by synapses suggests an important functional role for this relationship. It is well known that there are atoms and molecules in the extracellular space that are absolutely necessary for synapses to function (e.g., calcium). I propose here the hypothesis that the rapid shift of these atoms and molecules from extracellular to intrasynaptic compartments represents the consumption of a shared, limited resource available to local volumes of neural tissue. Such consumption results in a dramatic competition among synapses for resources necessary for their function. In this paper, I explore a theory in which this resource consumption plays a critical role in the way local volumes of neural tissue operate. On short time scales, this principle of resource consumption permits a tissue volume to choose those synapses that function in a particular context and thereby helps to integrate the many neural signals that impinge on a tissue volume at any given moment. On longer time scales, the same principle aids in the stable storage and recall of information. The theory provides one framework for understanding how cerebral cortical tissue volumes integrate, attend to, store, and recall information. In this account, the capacity of neural tissue to attend to stimuli is intimately tied to the way tissue volumes are organized at fine spatial scales.

A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes.