Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Social evolution in a new environment: the case of introduced fire ants.

The inadvertent introduction of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta to the United States from South America provides the opportunity to study recent social evolution by comparing social organization in native and introduced populations. We report that several important elements of social organization in multiple-queen nests differ consistently and dramatically between ants in Argentina and the United States. Colonies in Argentina contain relatively few queens and they are close relatives, whereas colonies in the United States contain high numbers of unrelated queens. A corollary of these differences is that workers in the native populations are significantly related to the new queens that they rear in contrast to the zero relatedness between workers and new queens in the introduced populations. The observed differences in queen number and relatedness signal a shift in the breeding biology of the introduced ants that is predicted on the basis of the high population densities in the new range. An additional difference in social organization that we observed, greater proportions of permanently unmated queens in introduced than in native populations, is predicted from the loss of alleles at the sex-determining locus and consequent skewing of operational sex ratios in the colonizing ants. Thus, significant recent social evolution in fire ants is consistent with theoretical expectations based on the altered ecology and population genetics of the introduced populations.