Game theory and reciprocity in some extensive form experimental games

We examine decision making in two-person extensive form game trees using nine treatments that vary matching protocol, payoffs, and payoff information. Our objective is to establish replicable principles of cooperative versus noncooperative behavior that involve the use of signaling, reciprocity, and backward induction strategies, depending on the availability of dominated direct punishing strategies and the probability of repeated interaction with the same partner. Contrary to the predictions of game theory, we find substantial support for cooperation under complete information even in various single-play treatments.

Nonatomic games on Loeb spaces

In the setting of noncooperative game theory, strategic negligibility of individual agents, or diffuseness of information, has been modeled as a nonatomic measure space, typically the unit interval endowed with Lebesgue measure. However, recent work has shown that with uncountable action sets, for example the unit interval, there do not exist pure-strategy Nash equilibria in such nonatomic games. In this brief announcement, we show that there is a perfectly satisfactory existence theory for nonatomic games provided this nonatomicity is formulated on the basis of a particular class of measure spaces, hyperfinite Loeb spaces. We also emphasize other desirable properties of games on hyperfinite Loeb spaces, and present a synthetic treatment, embracing both large games as well as those with incomplete information.

National burden of disease in India from indoor air pollution

In the last decade, a number of quantitative epidemiological studies of specific diseases have been done in developing countries that for the first time allow estimation of the total burden of disease (mortality and morbidity) attributable to use of solid fuels in adult women and young children, who jointly receive the highest exposures because of their household roles. Few such studies are available as yet for adult men or children over 5 years. This paper evaluates the existing epidemiological studies and applies the resulting risks to the more than three-quarters of all Indian households dependent on such fuels. Allowance is made for the existence of improved stoves with chimneys and other factors that may lower exposures. Attributable risks are calculated in reference to the demographic conditions and patterns of each disease in India. Sufficient evidence is available to estimate risks most confidently for acute respiratory infections (ARI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer. Estimates for tuberculosis (TB), asthma, and blindness are of intermediate confidence. Estimates for heart disease have the lowest confidence. Insufficient quantitative evidence is currently available to estimate the impact of adverse pregnancy outcomes (e.g., low birthweight and stillbirth). The resulting conservative estimates indicate that some 400–550 thousand premature deaths can be attributed annually to use of biomass fuels in these population groups. Using a disability-adjusted lost life-year approach, the total is 4–6% of the Indian national burden of disease, placing indoor air pollution as a major risk factor in the country.

Stochastic game theory: For playing games, not just for doing theory

Recent theoretical advances have dramatically increased the relevance of game theory for predicting human behavior in interactive situations. By relaxing the classical assumptions of perfect rationality and perfect foresight, we obtain much improved explanations of initial decisions, dynamic patterns of learning and adjustment, and equilibrium steady-state distributions.