Predicting species diversity in tropical forests

A fundamental question in ecology is how many species occur within a given area. Despite the complexity and diversity of different ecosystems, there exists a surprisingly simple, approximate answer: the number of species is proportional to the size of the area raised to some exponent. The exponent often turns out to be roughly 1/4. This power law can be derived from assumptions about the relative abundances of species or from notions of self-similarity. Here we analyze the largest existing data set of location-mapped species: over one million, individually identified trees from five tropical forests on three continents. Although the power law is a reasonable, zeroth-order approximation of our data, we find consistent deviations from it on all spatial scales. Furthermore, tropical forests are not self-similar at areas ≤50 hectares. We develop an extended model of the species-area relationship, which enables us to predict large-scale species diversity from small-scale data samples more accurately than any other available method.

Forest losses predict bird extinctions in eastern North America.

Claims that there will be a massive loss of species as tropical forests are cleared are based on the relationship between habitat area and the number of species. Few studies calibrate extinction with habitat reduction. Critics raise doubts about this calibration, noting that there has been extensive clearing of the eastern North American forest, yet only 4 of its approximately 200 bird species have gone extinct. We analyze the distribution of bird species and the timing and extent of forest loss. The forest losses were not concurrent across the region. Based on the maximum extent of forest losses, our calculations predict fewer extinctions than the number observed. At most, there are 28 species of birds restricted to the region. Only these species would be at risk even if all the forests were cleared. Far from providing comfort to those who argue that the current rapid rate of tropical deforestation might cause fewer extinctions than often claimed, our results suggest that the losses may be worse. In contrast to eastern North America, small regions of tropical forest often hold hundreds of endemic bird species.

Directed seed dispersal by bellbirds in a tropical cloud forest

A fundamental goal of plant population ecology is to understand the consequences for plant fitness of seed dispersal by animals. Theories of seed dispersal and tropical forest regeneration suggest that the advantages of seed dispersal for most plants are escape from seed predation near the parent tree and colonization of vacant sites, the locations of which are unpredictable in space and time. Some plants may gain in fitness as a fortuitous consequence of disperser behavior if certain species of dispersers nonrandomly place seeds in sites predictably favorable for seedling establishment. Such patterns of directed dispersal by vertebrates long have been suggested but never demonstrated for tropical forest trees. Here we report the pattern of seed distribution and 1-year seedling survival generated by five species of birds for a neotropical, shade-tolerant tree. Four of the species dispersed seeds to sites near the parent trees with microhabitat characteristics similar to those at random locations, whereas the fifth species, a bellbird, predictably dispersed seeds under song perches in canopy gaps. The pattern of seedling recruitment was bimodal, with a peak near parent trees and a second peak, corresponding to bellbird song perches, far (>40 m) from parent trees. Seedling survival was higher for seeds dispersed by bellbirds than by the other species, because of a reduction in seedling mortality by fungal pathogens in gaps. Thus, bellbirds play a significant role in seed dispersal by providing directed dispersal to favorable sites and therefore may influence plant recruitment patterns and species diversity in Neotropical forests.