Asian genotypes of JC virus in Native Americans and in a Pacific Island population: Markers of viral evolution and human migration

The human polyomavirus JC (JCV) causes the central nervous system demyelinating disease progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Previously, we showed that 40% of Caucasians in the United States excrete JCV in the urine as detected by PCR. We have now studied 68 Navaho from New Mexico, 25 Flathead from Montana, and 29 Chamorro from Guam. By using PCR amplification of a fragment of the VP1 gene, JCV DNA was detected in the urine of 45 (66%) Navaho, 14 (56%) Flathead, and 20 (69%) Chamorro. Genotyping of viral DNAs in these cohorts by cycle sequencing showed predominantly type 2 (Asian), rather than type 1 (European). Type 1 is the major type in the United States and Hungary. Type 2 can be further subdivided into 2A, 2B, and 2C. Type 2A is found in China and Japan. Type 2B is a subtype related to the East Asian type, and is now found in Europe and the United States. The large majority (56–89%) of strains excreted by Native Americans and Pacific Islanders were the type 2A subtype, consistent with the origin of these strains in Asia. These findings indicate that JCV infection of Native Americans predates contact with Europeans, and likely predates migration of Amerind ancestors across the Bering land bridge around 12,000–30,000 years ago. If JCV had already differentiated into stable modern genotypes and subtypes prior to first settlement, the origin of JCV in humans may date from 50,000 to 100,000 years ago or more. We conclude that JCV may have coevolved with the human species, and that it provides a convenient marker for human migrations in both prehistoric and modern times.

The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.