What electrical measurements can say about changes in fault systems.

Earthquake zones in the upper crust are usually more conductive than the surrounding rocks, and electrical geophysical measurements can be used to map these zones. Magnetotelluric (MT) measurements across fault zones that are parallel to the coast and not too far away can also give some important information about the lower crustal zone. This is because the long-period electric currents coming from the ocean gradually leak into the mantle, but the lower crust is usually very resistive and very little leakage takes place. If a lower crustal zone is less resistive it will be a leakage zone, and this can be seen because the MT phase will change as the ocean currents leave the upper crust. The San Andreas Fault is parallel to the ocean boundary and close enough to have a lot of extra ocean currents crossing the zone. The Loma Prieta zone, after the earthquake, showed a lot of ocean electric current leakage, suggesting that the lower crust under the fault zone was much more conductive than normal. It is hard to believe that water, which is responsible for the conductivity, had time to get into the lower crustal zone, so it was probably always there, but not well connected. If this is true, then the poorly connected water would be at a pressure close to the rock pressure, and it may play a role in modifying the fluid pressure in the upper crust fault zone. We also have telluric measurements across the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale from 1979 to 1990, and beginning in 1985 we saw changes in the telluric signals on the fault zone and east of the fault zone compared with the signals west of the fault zone. These measurements were probably seeing a better connection of the lower crust fluids taking place, and this may result in a fluid flow from the lower crust to the upper crust. This could be a factor in changing the strength of the upper crust fault zone.

Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

Life in the end-Permian dead zone

The fossil record of land plants is an obvious source of information on the dynamics of mass extinctions in the geological past. In conjunction with the end-Permian ecological crisis, ≈250 million years ago, palynological data from East Greenland reveal some unanticipated patterns. We document the significant time lag between terrestrial ecosystem collapse and selective extinction among characteristic Late Permian plants. Furthermore, ecological crisis resulted in an initial increase in plant diversity, instead of a decrease. Paradoxically, these floral patterns correspond to a “dead zone” in the end-Permian faunal record, characterized by a paucity of marine invertebrate megafossils. The time-delayed, end-Permian plant extinctions resemble modeled “extinction debt” responses of multispecies metapopulations to progressive habitat destruction.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.