Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection

Most HIV replication occurs in solid lymphoid tissue, which has prominent architecture at the histological level, which separates groups of productively infected CD4+ cells. Nevertheless, current population models of HIV assume panmixis within lymphoid tissue. We present a simple “metapopulation” model of HIV replication, where the population of infected cells is comprised of a large number of small populations, each of which is established by a few founder viruses and undergoes turnover. To test this model, we analyzed viral genetic variation of infected cell subpopulations within the spleen and demonstrated the action of founder effects as well as significant variation in the extent of genetic differentiation between subpopulations among patients. The combination of founder effects and subpopulation turnover can result in an effective population size much lower than the actual population size and may contribute to the importance of genetic drift in HIV evolution despite a large number of infected cells.

Distribution of haplotypes from a chromosome 21 region distinguishes multiple prehistoric human migrations

Despite mounting genetic evidence implicating a recent origin of modern humans, the elucidation of early migratory gene-flow episodes remains incomplete. Geographic distribution of haplotypes may show traces of ancestral migrations. However, such evolutionary signatures can be erased easily by recombination and mutational perturbations. A 565-bp chromosome 21 region near the MX1 gene, which contains nine sites frequently polymorphic in human populations, has been found. It is unaffected by recombination and recurrent mutation and thus reflects only migratory history, genetic drift, and possibly selection. Geographic distribution of contemporary haplotypes implies distinctive prehistoric human migrations: one to Oceania, one to Asia and subsequently to America, and a third one predominantly to Europe. The findings with chromosome 21 are confirmed by independent evidence from a Y chromosome phylogeny. Loci of this type will help to decipher the evolutionary history of modern humans.

Population dynamics, demographic stochasticity, and the evolution of cooperation

A basic evolutionary problem posed by the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma game is to understand when the paradigmatic cooperative strategy Tit-for-Tat can invade a population of pure defectors. Deterministically, this is impossible. We consider the role of demographic stochasticity by embedding the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma into a population dynamic framework. Tit-for-Tat can invade a population of defectors when their dynamics exhibit short episodes of high population densities with subsequent crashes and long low density periods with strong genetic drift. Such dynamics tend to have reddened power spectra and temporal distributions of population size that are asymmetric and skewed toward low densities. The results indicate that ecological dynamics are important for evolutionary shifts between adaptive peaks.

The optimal measure of allelic association

Allelic association between pairs of loci is derived in terms of the association probability ρ as a function of recombination θ, effective population size N, linear systematic pressure v, and time t, predicting both ρrt, the decrease of association from founders and ρct, the increase by genetic drift, with ρt = ρrt + ρct. These results conform to the Malecot equation, with time replaced by distance on the genetic map, or on the physical map if recombination in the region is uniform. Earlier evidence suggested that ρ is less sensitive to variations in marker allele frequencies than alternative metrics for which there is no probability theory. This robustness is confirmed for six alternatives in eight samples. In none of these 48 tests was the residual variance as small as for ρ. Overall, efficiency was less than 80% for all alternatives, and less than 30% for two of them. Efficiency of alternatives did not increase when information was estimated simultaneously. The swept radius within which substantial values of ρ are conserved lies between 385 and 893 kb, but deviation of parameters between measures is enormously significant. The large effort now being devoted to allelic association has little value unless the ρ metric with the strongest theoretical basis and least sensitivity to marker allele frequencies is used for mapping of marker association and localization of disease loci.

Disrupting evolutionary processes: The effect of habitat fragmentation on collared lizards in the Missouri Ozarks

Humans affect biodiversity at the genetic, species, community, and ecosystem levels. This impact on genetic diversity is critical, because genetic diversity is the raw material of evolutionary change, including adaptation and speciation. Two forces affecting genetic variation are genetic drift (which decreases genetic variation within but increases genetic differentiation among local populations) and gene flow (which increases variation within but decreases differentiation among local populations). Humans activities often augment drift and diminish gene flow for many species, which reduces genetic variation in local populations and prevents the spread of adaptive complexes outside their population of origin, thereby disrupting adaptive processes both locally and globally within a species. These impacts are illustrated with collared lizards (Crotaphytus collaris) in the Missouri Ozarks. Forest fire suppression has reduced habitat and disrupted gene flow in this lizard, thereby altering the balance toward drift and away from gene flow. This balance can be restored by managed landscape burns. Some have argued that, although human-induced fragmentation disrupts adaptation, it will also ultimately produce new species through founder effects. However, population genetic theory and experiments predict that most fragmentation events caused by human activities will facilitate not speciation, but local extinction. Founder events have played an important role in the macroevolution of certain groups, but only when ecological opportunities are expanding rather than contracting. The general impact of human activities on genetic diversity disrupts or diminishes the capacity for adaptation, speciation, and macroevolutionary change. This impact will ultimately diminish biodiversity at all levels.

Gene genealogies and population variation in plants

Early in the development of plant evolutionary biology, genetic drift, fluctuations in population size, and isolation were identified as critical processes that affect the course of evolution in plant species. Attempts to assess these processes in natural populations became possible only with the development of neutral genetic markers in the 1960s. More recently, the application of historically ordered neutral molecular variation (within the conceptual framework of coalescent theory) has allowed a reevaluation of these microevolutionary processes. Gene genealogies trace the evolutionary relationships among haplotypes (alleles) with populations. Processes such as selection, fluctuation in population size, and population substructuring affect the geographical and genealogical relationships among these alleles. Therefore, examination of these genealogical data can provide insights into the evolutionary history of a species. For example, studies of Arabidopsis thaliana have suggested that this species underwent rapid expansion, with populations showing little genetic differentiation. The new discipline of phylogeography examines the distribution of allele genealogies in an explicit geographical context. Phylogeographic studies of plants have documented the recolonization of European tree species from refugia subsequent to Pleistocene glaciation, and such studies have been instructive in understanding the origin and domestication of the crop cassava. Currently, several technical limitations hinder the widespread application of a genealogical approach to plant evolutionary studies. However, as these technical issues are solved, a genealogical approach holds great promise for understanding these previously elusive processes in plant evolution.

Positive selection and rates of evolution in immunodeficiency viruses from humans and chimpanzees.

Evolutionary theory predicts the recent spread of primate immunodeficiency viruses (PIVs) to new human populations to be accompanied by positive selection in response to new host environments and/or by random genetic drift. I assess evidence for positive selection in human and chimpanzee PIVs type I (PIV1s), using ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide change based on branch lengths and outgroup rooting. Ratios are smaller for PIV1s from humans than for PIV1 from a chimpanzee for the pol, gag, and env glycoprotein 120 (gp120) regions, indicating greater effects of positive selection in PIV1s from humans. Parsimony-based relative rate tests for amino acid changes showed significant differences between PIV1s from humans and chimpanzees in 18 of 48 pairwise comparisons, with all 18 showing faster rates of change in PIV1s from humans. This study indicates that in some instances, the recent evolution of human PIV1s follows a speciational pattern, in which increased diversification of taxa is correlated with greater amounts of character change appearing and being maintained through time. This extends the generality of the speciational pattern to a group of organisms (viruses) having the fastest known rates of anagenetic change for nucleotide characters and indicates that comprehensive understanding of PIV1 evolution requires consideration of both anagenetic change within viral lineages and the relative historical success of different viral clades. Phylogenetic analyses show that neither PIV1s infecting humans nor those infecting chimpanzees represent monophyletic groups and suggest multiple host-species shifts for PIV1s.

Muller's ratchet decreases fitness of a DNA-based microbe.

Muller proposed that an asexual organism will inevitably accumulate deleterious mutations, resulting in an increase of the mutational load and an inexorable, ratchet-like, loss of the least mutated class [Muller, H.J. (1964) Mutat. Res. 1, 2-9]. The operation of Muller's ratchet on real populations has been experimentally demonstrated only in RNA viruses. However, these cases are exceptional in that the mutation rates of the RNA viruses are extremely high. We have examined whether Muller's ratchet operates in Salmonella typhimurium, a DNA-based organism with a more typical genomic mutation rate. Cells were grown asexually under conditions expected to result in high genetic drift, and the increase in mutational load was determined. S. typhimurium accumulated mutations under these conditions such that after 1700 generations, 1% of the 444 lineages tested had suffered an obvious loss of fitness, as determined by decreased growth rate. These results suggest that in the absence of sex and with high genetic drift, genetic mechanisms, such as back or compensatory mutations, cannot compensate for the accumulation of deleterious mutations. In addition, we measured the appearance of auxotrophs, which allowed us to calculate an average spontaneous mutation rate of approximately 0.3-1.5 x 10(-9) mutations per base pair per generation. This rate is measured for the largest genetic target studied so far, a collection of about 200 genes.

Maintenance of pre-mRNA secondary structure by epistatic selection.

Linkage disequilibrium between polymorphisms in a natural population may result from various evolutionary forces, including random genetic drift due to sampling of gametes during reproduction, restricted migration between subpopulations in a subdivided population, or epistatic selection. In this report, we present evidence that the majority of significant linkage disequilibria observed in introns of the alcohol dehydrogenase locus (Adh) of Drosophila pseudoobscura are due to epistatic selection maintaining secondary structure of precursor mRNA (pre-mRNA). Based on phylogenetic-comparative analysis and a likelihood approach, we propose secondary structure models of Adh pre-mRNA for the regions of the adult intron and intron 2 where clustering of linkage disequilibria has been observed. Furthermore, we applied the likelihood ratio test to the phylogenetically predicted secondary structure in intron 1. In contrast to the other two structures, polymorphisms associated with the more conserved stem-loop structure of intron 1 are in low frequency, and linkage disequilibria have not been observed. These findings are qualitatively consistent with a model of compensatory fitness interactions. This model assumes that mutations disrupting pairing in a secondary structural element are individually deleterious if they destabilize a functionally important structure; a second "compensatory" mutation, however, may restabilize the structure and restore fitness.

Flightless brown kiwis of New Zealand possess extremely subdivided population structure and cryptic species like small mammals.

Using allozymes and mtDNA sequences from the cytochrome b gene, we report that the brown kiwi has the highest levels of genetic structuring observed in birds. Moreover, the mtDNA sequences are, with two minor exceptions, diagnostic genetic markers for each population investigated, even though they are among the more slowly evolving coding regions in this genome. A major unexpected finding was the concordant split in molecular phylogenies between brown kiwis in the southern South Island and elsewhere in New Zealand. This basic phylogeographic boundary halfway down the South Island coincides with a fixed allele difference in the Hb nuclear locus and strongly suggests that two morphologically cryptic species are currently merged under one polytypic species. This is another striking example of how molecular genetic assays can detect phylogenetic discontinuities that are not reflected in traditional morphologically based taxonomies. However, reanalysis of the morphological characters by using phylogenetic methods revealed that the reason for this discordance is that most are primitive and thus are phylogenetically uninformative. Shared-derived morphological characters support the same relationships evident in the molecular phylogenies and, in concert with the molecular data, suggest that as brown kiwis colonized northward from the southern South Island, they retained many primitive characters that confounded earlier systematists. Strong subdivided population structure and cryptic species in brown kiwis seem to have evolved relatively recently as a consequence of Pleistocene range disjunctions, low dispersal power, and genetic drift in small populations.

Microsatellite variability and genetic distances.

We analyze the within- and between-population dynamics of the distribution of the number of repeats at multiple microsatellite DNA loci subject to stepwise mutation. Analytical expressions for moments up to the fourth order within a locus and the variance of between-locus variance at mutation-drift equilibrium have been obtained. These statistics may be used to test the appropriateness of the one-step mutation model and to detect between-locus variation in the mutation rate. Published data are compatible with the one-step mutation model, although they do not reject the two-step model. Using both multinomial sampling and diffusion approximations for the analysis of the genetic distance introduced by Goldstein et al. [Goldstein, D. B., Linares, A. R., Cavalli-Sforza, L. L. & Feldman, M. W. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 6723-6727], we show that this distance follows a chi 2 distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of loci when there is no variation in mutation rates among the loci. In the presence of such variation, the variance of the distance is obtained. We conclude that the number of microsatellite loci required for the construction of phylogenetic trees with reliable branch lengths may be several hundred. Also, mutations that change repeat scores by several units, even though extremely rare, may dramatically influence estimates of population parameters.