The biotic crisis and the future of evolution

The biotic crisis overtaking our planet is likely to precipitate a major extinction of species. That much is well known. Not so well known but probably more significant in the long term is that the crisis will surely disrupt and deplete certain basic processes of evolution, with consequences likely to persist for millions of years. Distinctive features of future evolution could include a homogenization of biotas, a proliferation of opportunistic species, a pest-and-weed ecology, an outburst of speciation among taxa that prosper in human-dominated ecosystems, a decline of biodisparity, an end to the speciation of large vertebrates, the depletion of “evolutionary powerhouses” in the tropics, and unpredictable emergent novelties. Despite this likelihood, we have only a rudimentary understanding of how we are altering the evolutionary future. As a result of our ignorance, conservation policies fail to reflect long-term evolutionary aspects of biodiversity loss.

The future of coral reefs

Coral reefs, with their millions of species, have changed profoundly because of the effects of people, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Reefs are subject to many of the same processes that affect other human-dominated ecosystems, but some special features merit emphasis: (i) Many dominant reef builders spawn eggs and sperm into the water column, where fertilization occurs. They are thus particularly vulnerable to Allee effects, including potential extinction associated with chronic reproductive failure. (ii) The corals likely to be most resistant to the effects of habitat degradation are small, short-lived “weedy” corals that have limited dispersal capabilities at the larval stage. Habitat degradation, together with habitat fragmentation, will therefore lead to the establishment of genetically isolated clusters of inbreeding corals. (iii) Increases in average sea temperatures by as little as 1°C, a likely result of global climate change, can cause coral “bleaching” (the breakdown of coral–algal symbiosis), changes in symbiont communities, and coral death. (iv) The activities of people near reefs increase both fishing pressure and nutrient inputs. In general, these processes favor more rapidly growing competitors, often fleshy seaweeds, and may also result in explosions of predator populations. (v) Combinations of stress appear to be associated with threshold responses and ecological surprises, including devastating pathogen outbreaks. (vi) The fossil record suggests that corals as a group are more likely to suffer extinctions than some of the groups that associate with them, whose habitat requirements may be less stringent.

Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution

Although panel discussants disagreed whether the biodiversity crisis constitutes a mass extinction event, all agreed that current extinction rates are 50–500 times background and are increasing and that the consequences for the future evolution of life are serious. In response to the on-going rapid decline of biomes and homogenization of biotas, the panelists predicted changes in species geographic ranges, genetic risks of extinction, genetic assimilation, natural selection, mutation rates, the shortening of food chains, the increase in nutrient-enriched niches permitting the ascendancy of microbes, and the differential survival of ecological generalists. Rates of evolutionary processes will change in different groups, and speciation in the larger vertebrates is essentially over. Action taken over the next few decades will determine how impoverished the biosphere will be in 1,000 years when many species will suffer reduced evolvability and require interventionist genetic and ecological management. Whether the biota will continue to provide the dependable ecological services humans take for granted is less clear. The discussants offered recommendations, including two of paramount importance (concerning human populations and education), seven identifying specific scientific activities to better equip us for stewardship of the processes of evolution, and one suggesting that such stewardship is now our responsibility. The ultimate test of evolutionary biology as a science is not whether it solves the riddles of the past but rather whether it enables us to manage the future of the biosphere. Our inability to make clearer predictions about the future of evolution has serious consequences for both biodiversity and humanity.

The future of the national laboratories

The end of the Cold War has called into question the activities of the national laboratories and, more generally, the level of support now given to federal intramural research in the United States. This paper seeks to analyze the potential role of the laboratories, with particular attention to the possibility, on the one hand, of integrating private technology development into the laboratory’s menu of activities and, on the other hand, of outsourcing traditional mission activities. We review the economic efficiency arguments for intramural research and the political conditions that are likely to constrain the activities of the laboratories, and analyze the early history of programs intended to promote new technology via cooperative agreements between the laboratories and private industry. Our analysis suggests that the laboratories are likely to shrink considerably in size, and that the federal government faces a significant problem in deciding how to organize a downsizing of the federal research establishment.

Nitrogen management and the future of food: Lessons from the management of energy and carbon

The food system dominates anthropogenic disruption of the nitrogen cycle by generating excess fixed nitrogen. Excess fixed nitrogen, in various guises, augments the greenhouse effect, diminishes stratospheric ozone, promotes smog, contaminates drinking water, acidifies rain, eutrophies bays and estuaries, and stresses ecosystems. Yet, to date, regulatory efforts to limit these disruptions largely ignore the food system. There are many parallels between food and energy. Food is to nitrogen as energy is to carbon. Nitrogen fertilizer is analogous to fossil fuel. Organic agriculture and agricultural biotechnology play roles analogous to renewable energy and nuclear power in political discourse. Nutrition research resembles energy end-use analysis. Meat is the electricity of food. As the agriculture and food system evolves to contain its impacts on the nitrogen cycle, several lessons can be extracted from energy and carbon: (i) set the goal of ecosystem stabilization; (ii) search the entire production and consumption system (grain, livestock, food distribution, and diet) for opportunities to improve efficiency; (iii) implement cap-and-trade systems for fixed nitrogen; (iv) expand research at the intersection of agriculture and ecology, and (v) focus on the food choices of the prosperous. There are important nitrogen-carbon links. The global increase in fixed nitrogen may be fertilizing the Earth, transferring significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere to the biosphere, and mitigating global warming. A modern biofuels industry someday may produce biofuels from crop residues or dedicated energy crops, reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, while losses of nitrogen and other nutrients are minimized.

The future of voice-processing technology in the world of computers and communications.

This talk, which was the keynote address of the NAS Colloquium on Human-Machine Communication by Voice, discusses the past, present, and future of human-machine communications, especially speech recognition and speech synthesis. Progress in these technologies is reviewed in the context of the general progress in computer and communications technologies.

Library of libraries: approach to synthetic combinatorial library design and screening of "pharmacophore" motifs.

Construction of synthetic combinatorial libraries is described that allows for the generation of a library of motifs rather than a library of compounds. Peptide libraries based on this strategy were synthesized and screened with model targets streptavidin and anti-beta-endorphin antibody. The screens resulted in observation of expected motifs providing evidence of the effectiveness of the suggested approach.

Health sciences libraries in Kuwait: a study of their resources, facilities, and services

The purpose of this study was to examine the current status of health sciences libraries in Kuwait in terms of their staff, collections, facilities, use of information technology, information services, and cooperation. Seventeen libraries participated in the study. Results show that the majority of health sciences libraries were established during the 1980s. Their collections are relatively small. The majority of their staff is nonprofessional. The majority of libraries provide only basic information services. Cooperation among libraries is limited. Survey results also indicate that a significant number of health sciences libraries are not automated. Some recommendations for the improvement of existing resources, facilities, and services are made.

Public library consumer health information pilot project: results of a National Library of Medicine evaluation

In October 1998, the National Library of Medicine (NLM) launched a pilot project to learn about the role of public libraries in providing health information to the public and to generate information that would assist NLM and the National Network of Libraries of Medicine (NN/LM) in learning how best to work with public libraries in the future. Three regional medical libraries (RMLs), eight resource libraries, and forty-one public libraries or library systems from nine states and the District of Columbia were selected for participation. The pilot project included an evaluation component that was carried out in parallel with project implementation. The evaluation ran through September 1999. The results of the evaluation indicated that participating public librarians were enthusiastic about the training and information materials provided as part of the project and that many public libraries used the materials and conducted their own outreach to local communities and groups. Most libraries applied the modest funds to purchase additional Internet-accessible computers and/or upgrade their health-reference materials. However, few of the participating public libraries had health information centers (although health information was perceived as a top-ten or top-five topic of interest to patrons). Also, the project generated only minimal usage of NLM's consumer health database, known as MEDLINEplus, from the premises of the monitored libraries (patron usage from home or office locations was not tracked). The evaluation results suggested a balanced follow-up by NLM and the NN/LM, with a few carefully selected national activities, complemented by a package of targeted activities that, as of January 2000, are being planned, developed, or implemented. The results also highlighted the importance of building an evaluation component into projects like this one from the outset, to assure that objectives were met and that evaluative information was available on a timely basis, as was the case here.

Basis for selection of improved carbohydrate-binding single-chain antibodies from synthetic gene libraries.

A technique is described for the simultaneous and controlled random mutation of all three heavy or light chain complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) in a single-chain Fv specific for the O polysaccharide of Salmonella serogroup B. Sense oligonucleotides were synthesized such that the central bases encoding a CDR were randomized by equimolar spiking with A, G, C, and T at a level of 10% while the antisense strands contained inosine in the spiked regions. Phage display of libraries assembled from the spiked oligonucleotides by a synthetic ligase chain reaction demonstrated a bias for selection of mutants that formed dimers and higher oligomers. Kinetic analyses showed that oligomerization increased association rates in addition to slowing dissociation rates. In combination with some contribution from reduced steric clashes with residues in heavy-chain CDR2, oligomerization resulted in functional affinities that were much higher than that of the monomeric form of the wild-type single-chain Fv.