The future of voice-processing technology in the world of computers and communications.

This talk, which was the keynote address of the NAS Colloquium on Human-Machine Communication by Voice, discusses the past, present, and future of human-machine communications, especially speech recognition and speech synthesis. Progress in these technologies is reviewed in the context of the general progress in computer and communications technologies.

The future of the national laboratories

The end of the Cold War has called into question the activities of the national laboratories and, more generally, the level of support now given to federal intramural research in the United States. This paper seeks to analyze the potential role of the laboratories, with particular attention to the possibility, on the one hand, of integrating private technology development into the laboratory’s menu of activities and, on the other hand, of outsourcing traditional mission activities. We review the economic efficiency arguments for intramural research and the political conditions that are likely to constrain the activities of the laboratories, and analyze the early history of programs intended to promote new technology via cooperative agreements between the laboratories and private industry. Our analysis suggests that the laboratories are likely to shrink considerably in size, and that the federal government faces a significant problem in deciding how to organize a downsizing of the federal research establishment.

Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Commercial applications of speech interface technology: an industry at the threshold.

Speech interface technology, which includes automatic speech recognition, synthetic speech, and natural language processing, is beginning to have a significant impact on business and personal computer use. Today, powerful and inexpensive microprocessors and improved algorithms are driving commercial applications in computer command, consumer, data entry, speech-to-text, telephone, and voice verification. Robust speaker-independent recognition systems for command and navigation in personal computers are now available; telephone-based transaction and database inquiry systems using both speech synthesis and recognition are coming into use. Large-vocabulary speech interface systems for document creation and read-aloud proofing are expanding beyond niche markets. Today's applications represent a small preview of a rich future for speech interface technology that will eventually replace keyboards with microphones and loud-speakers to give easy accessibility to increasingly intelligent machines.

Speech technology in the year 2001.

This paper introduces the session "Technology in the Year 2001" and is the first of four papers dealing with the future of human-machine communication by voice. In looking to the future it is important to recognize both the difficulties of technological forecasting and the frailties of the technology as it exists today--frailties that are manifestations of our limited scientific understanding of human cognition. The technology to realize truly advanced applications does not yet exist and cannot be supported by our presently incomplete science of speech. To achieve this long-term goal, the authors advocate a fundamental research program using a cybernetic approach substantially different from more conventional synthetic approaches. In a cybernetic approach, feedback control systems will allow a machine to adapt to a linguistically rich environment using reinforcement learning.