Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Glutamate transporter currents in Bergmann glial cells follow the time course of extrasynaptic glutamate

Glutamate transporters in the central nervous system are expressed in both neurons and glia, they mediate high affinity, electrogenic uptake of glutamate, and they are associated with an anion conductance that is stoichiometrically uncoupled from glutamate flux. Although a complete cycle of transport may require 50–100 ms, previous studies suggest that transporters can alter synaptic currents on a much faster time scale. We find that application of l-glutamate to outside-out patches from cerebellar Bergmann glia activates anion-potentiated glutamate transporter currents that activate in <1 ms, suggesting an efficient mechanism for the capture of extrasynaptic glutamate. Stimulation in the granule cell layer in cerebellar slices elicits all or none α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionate receptor and glutamate transporter currents in Bergmann glia that have a rapid onset, suggesting that glutamate released from climbing fiber terminals escapes synaptic clefts and reaches glial membranes shortly after release. Comparison of the concentration dependence of both α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionate receptor and glutamate transporter kinetics in patches with the time course of climbing fiber-evoked responses indicates that the glutamate transient at Bergmann glial membranes reaches a lower concentration than attained in the synaptic cleft and remains elevated in the extrasynaptic space for many milliseconds.

Energy-based de novo protein folding by conformational space annealing and an off-lattice united-residue force field: Application to the 10-55 fragment of staphylococcal protein A and to apo calbindin D9K

The conformational space annealing (CSA) method for global optimization has been applied to the 10-55 fragment of the B-domain of staphylococcal protein A (protein A) and to a 75-residue protein, apo calbindin D9K (PDB ID code 1CLB), by using the UNRES off-lattice united-residue force field. Although the potential was not calibrated with these two proteins, the native-like structures were found among the low-energy conformations, without the use of threading or secondary-structure predictions. This is because the CSA method can find many distinct families of low-energy conformations. Starting from random conformations, the CSA method found that there are two families of low-energy conformations for each of the two proteins, the native-like fold and its mirror image. The CSA method converged to the same low-energy folds in all cases studied, as opposed to other optimization methods. It appears that the CSA method with the UNRES force field, which is based on the thermodynamic hypothesis, can be used in prediction of protein structures in real time.