Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Direct observation of the oceanic CO2 increase revisited

We show, from recent data obtained at specimen North Pacific stations, that the fossil fuel CO2 signal is strongly present in the upper 400 m, and that we may consider areal extrapolations from geochemical surveys to determine the magnitude of ocean fossil fuel CO2 uptake. The debate surrounding this topic is illustrated by contrasting reports which suggest, based upon atmospheric observations and models, that the oceanic CO2 sink is small at these latitudes; or that the oceanic CO2 sink, based upon oceanic data and models, is large. The difference between these two estimates is at least a factor of two. There are contradictions arising from estimates based on surface partial pressures of CO2 alone, where the signal sought is small compared with regional and seasonal variability; and estimates of the accumulated subsurface burden, which correlates well other oceanic tracers. Ocean surface waters today contain about 45 μmol⋅kg−1 excess CO2 compared with those of the preindustrial era, and the signal is rising rapidly. What limits should we place on such calculations? The answer lies in the scientific questions to be asked. Recovery of the fossil fuel CO2 contamination signal from analysis of ocean water masses is robust enough to permit reasonable budget estimates. However, because we do not have sufficient data from the preindustrial ocean, the estimation of the required Redfield oxidation ratio in the upper several hundred meters is already blurred by the very fossil fuel CO2 signal we seek to resolve.

Nitrogen management and the future of food: Lessons from the management of energy and carbon

The food system dominates anthropogenic disruption of the nitrogen cycle by generating excess fixed nitrogen. Excess fixed nitrogen, in various guises, augments the greenhouse effect, diminishes stratospheric ozone, promotes smog, contaminates drinking water, acidifies rain, eutrophies bays and estuaries, and stresses ecosystems. Yet, to date, regulatory efforts to limit these disruptions largely ignore the food system. There are many parallels between food and energy. Food is to nitrogen as energy is to carbon. Nitrogen fertilizer is analogous to fossil fuel. Organic agriculture and agricultural biotechnology play roles analogous to renewable energy and nuclear power in political discourse. Nutrition research resembles energy end-use analysis. Meat is the electricity of food. As the agriculture and food system evolves to contain its impacts on the nitrogen cycle, several lessons can be extracted from energy and carbon: (i) set the goal of ecosystem stabilization; (ii) search the entire production and consumption system (grain, livestock, food distribution, and diet) for opportunities to improve efficiency; (iii) implement cap-and-trade systems for fixed nitrogen; (iv) expand research at the intersection of agriculture and ecology, and (v) focus on the food choices of the prosperous. There are important nitrogen-carbon links. The global increase in fixed nitrogen may be fertilizing the Earth, transferring significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere to the biosphere, and mitigating global warming. A modern biofuels industry someday may produce biofuels from crop residues or dedicated energy crops, reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, while losses of nitrogen and other nutrients are minimized.