World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term

The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption. However, progress has been very uneven, and many developing countries have failed to participate in such progress. In some countries, the food security situation is today worse than 20 years ago. The persistence of food insecurity does not reflect so much a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to increase food production to whatever level would be required for everyone to have consumption levels assuring satisfactory nutrition. The world already produces sufficient food. The undernourished and the food-insecure persons are in these conditions because they are poor in terms of income with which to purchase food or in terms of access to agricultural resources, education, technology, infrastructure, credit, etc., to produce their own food. Economic development failures account for the persistence of poverty and food insecurity. In the majority of countries with severe food-security problems, the greatest part of the poor and food-insecure population depend greatly on local agriculture for a living. In such cases, development failures are often tantamount to failures of agricultural development. Development of agriculture is seen as the first crucial step toward broader development, reduction of poverty and food insecurity, and eventually freedom from excessive economic dependence on poor agricultural resources. Projections indicate that progress would continue, but at a pace and pattern that would be insufficient for the incidence of undernutrition to be reduced significantly in the medium-term future. As in the past, world agricultural production is likely to keep up with, and perhaps tend to exceed, the growth of the effective demand for food. The problem will continue to be one of persistence of poverty, leading to growth of the effective demand for food on the part of the poor that would fall short of that required for them to attain levels of consumption compatible with freedom from undernutrition.

Evidence for a recommended dietary allowance for vitamin C from pharmacokinetics: A comment and analysis

The current recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for vitamin C, as proposed by the Food and Nutrition Board/National Research Council in 1980 and reconfirmed in 1989, is 60 mg daily for nonsmoking adult males. Levine et al. [Levine, M., Conry-Cantilena, C., Wang, Y., Welch, R. W., Washko, P. W., et al. (1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 3704–3709], based on a study of vitamin C pharmacokinetics in seven healthy men, have now proposed that the RDA should be increased to 200 mg daily. I have examined, in brief, the experimental and conceptual bases for this new recommendation and its implications for public health and nutrition policy and programs. Using, for illustrative purposes only, data extracted from each of two recent dietary surveys of noninstitutionalized adult males living in households in the Netherlands and the United States, it is predicted that the prevalence of intakes inadequate to meet the individual’s own requirement would be about 96% or 84%, respectively, if the criteria of adequacy used for derivation of the 200 mg RDA are accepted. Depending upon the particular average requirement value for ascorbic acid that might be derived from their data, the proposal by Levine et al. would mean a desirable increase in mean intakes in these two populations by as much about 2- to 3-fold. Hence, before an action of this kind is to be recommended, an answer must be sought to the question whether current experimental data including the criteria selected (saturation kinetics) are adequate to establish a new set of requirements for vitamin C, which then carry such profound policy implications. This will require critical assessment of all of the available evidence emerging from laboratory, clinical, and epidemiological studies to determine whether it provides a sufficient rationale for accepting criteria of vitamin C adequacy such as those proposed by Levine et al. and the requirement estimates so derived.

Nitrogen management and the future of food: Lessons from the management of energy and carbon

The food system dominates anthropogenic disruption of the nitrogen cycle by generating excess fixed nitrogen. Excess fixed nitrogen, in various guises, augments the greenhouse effect, diminishes stratospheric ozone, promotes smog, contaminates drinking water, acidifies rain, eutrophies bays and estuaries, and stresses ecosystems. Yet, to date, regulatory efforts to limit these disruptions largely ignore the food system. There are many parallels between food and energy. Food is to nitrogen as energy is to carbon. Nitrogen fertilizer is analogous to fossil fuel. Organic agriculture and agricultural biotechnology play roles analogous to renewable energy and nuclear power in political discourse. Nutrition research resembles energy end-use analysis. Meat is the electricity of food. As the agriculture and food system evolves to contain its impacts on the nitrogen cycle, several lessons can be extracted from energy and carbon: (i) set the goal of ecosystem stabilization; (ii) search the entire production and consumption system (grain, livestock, food distribution, and diet) for opportunities to improve efficiency; (iii) implement cap-and-trade systems for fixed nitrogen; (iv) expand research at the intersection of agriculture and ecology, and (v) focus on the food choices of the prosperous. There are important nitrogen-carbon links. The global increase in fixed nitrogen may be fertilizing the Earth, transferring significant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere to the biosphere, and mitigating global warming. A modern biofuels industry someday may produce biofuels from crop residues or dedicated energy crops, reducing the rate of fossil fuel use, while losses of nitrogen and other nutrients are minimized.