The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Anterograde flow of cargo across the Golgi stack potentially mediated via bidirectional “percolating” COPI vesicles

How do secretory proteins and other cargo targeted to post-Golgi locations traverse the Golgi stack? We report immunoelectron microscopy experiments establishing that a Golgi-restricted SNARE, GOS 28, is present in the same population of COPI vesicles as anterograde cargo marked by vesicular stomatitis virus glycoprotein, but is excluded from the COPI vesicles containing retrograde-targeted cargo (marked by KDEL receptor). We also report that GOS 28 and its partnering t-SNARE heavy chain, syntaxin 5, reside together in every cisterna of the stack. Taken together, these data raise the possibility that the anterograde cargo-laden COPI vesicles, retained locally by means of tethers, are inherently capable of fusing with neighboring cisternae on either side. If so, quanta of exported proteins would transit the stack in GOS 28–COPI vesicles via a bidirectional random walk, entering at the cis face and leaving at the trans face and percolating up and down the stack in between. Percolating vesicles carrying both post-Golgi cargo and Golgi residents up and down the stack would reconcile disparate observations on Golgi transport in cells and in cell-free systems.

The vibrational energy flow transition in organic molecules: Theory meets experiment

Most large dynamical systems are thought to have ergodic dynamics, whereas small systems may not have free interchange of energy between degrees of freedom. This assumption is made in many areas of chemistry and physics, ranging from nuclei to reacting molecules and on to quantum dots. We examine the transition to facile vibrational energy flow in a large set of organic molecules as molecular size is increased. Both analytical and computational results based on local random matrix models describe the transition to unrestricted vibrational energy flow in these molecules. In particular, the models connect the number of states participating in intramolecular energy flow to simple molecular properties such as the molecular size and the distribution of vibrational frequencies. The transition itself is governed by a local anharmonic coupling strength and a local state density. The theoretical results for the transition characteristics compare well with those implied by experimental measurements using IR fluorescence spectroscopy of dilution factors reported by Stewart and McDonald [Stewart, G. M. & McDonald, J. D. (1983) J. Chem. Phys. 78, 3907–3915].

Least activation path for protein folding: investigation of staphylococcal nuclease folding by stopped-flow circular dichroism.

Is the pathway of protein folding determined by the relative stability of folding intermediates, or by the relative height of the activation barriers leading to these intermediates? This is a fundamental question for resolving the Levinthal paradox, which stated that protein folding by a random search mechanism would require a time too long to be plausible. To answer this question, we have studied the guanidinium chloride (GdmCl)-induced folding/unfolding of staphylococcal nuclease [(SNase, formerly EC 3.1.4.7; now called microbial nuclease or endonuclease, EC 3.1.31.1] by stopped-flow circular dichroism (CD) and differential scanning microcalorimetry (DSC). The data show that while the equilibrium transition is a quasi-two-state process, kinetics in the 2-ms to 500-s time range are triphasic. Data support the sequential mechanism for SNase folding: U3 <--> U2 <--> U1 <--> N0, where U1, U2, and U3 are substates of the unfolded protein and N0 is the native state. Analysis of the relative population of the U1, U2, and U3 species in 2.0 M GdmCl gives delta-G values for the U3 --> U2 reaction of +0.1 kcal/mol and for the U2 --> U1 reaction of -0.49 kcal/mol. The delta-G value for the U1 --> N0 reaction is calculated to be -4.5 kcal/mol from DSC data. The activation energy, enthalpy, and entropy for each kinetic step are also determined. These results allow us to make the following four conclusions. (i) Although the U1, U2, and U3 states are nearly isoenergetic, no random walk occurs among them during the folding. The pathway of folding is unique and sequential. In other words, the relative stability of the folding intermediates does not dictate the folding pathway. Instead, the folding is a descent toward the global free-energy minimum of the native state via the least activation path in the vast energy landscape. Barrier avoidance leads the way, and barrier height limits the rate. Thus, the Levinthal paradox is not applicable to the protein-folding problem. (ii) The main folding reaction (U1 --> N0), in which the peptide chain acquires most of its free energy (via van der Waals' contacts, hydrogen bonding, and electrostatic interactions), is a highly concerted process. These energy-acquiring events take place in a single kinetic phase. (iii) U1 appears to be a compact unfolded species; the rate of conversion of U2 to U1 depends on the viscosity of solution. (iv) All four relaxation times reported here depend on GdmCl concentrations: it is likely that none involve the cis/trans isomerization of prolines. Finally, a mechanism is presented in which formation of sheet-like chain conformations and a hydrophobic condensation event precede the main-chain folding reaction.