World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term

The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption. However, progress has been very uneven, and many developing countries have failed to participate in such progress. In some countries, the food security situation is today worse than 20 years ago. The persistence of food insecurity does not reflect so much a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to increase food production to whatever level would be required for everyone to have consumption levels assuring satisfactory nutrition. The world already produces sufficient food. The undernourished and the food-insecure persons are in these conditions because they are poor in terms of income with which to purchase food or in terms of access to agricultural resources, education, technology, infrastructure, credit, etc., to produce their own food. Economic development failures account for the persistence of poverty and food insecurity. In the majority of countries with severe food-security problems, the greatest part of the poor and food-insecure population depend greatly on local agriculture for a living. In such cases, development failures are often tantamount to failures of agricultural development. Development of agriculture is seen as the first crucial step toward broader development, reduction of poverty and food insecurity, and eventually freedom from excessive economic dependence on poor agricultural resources. Projections indicate that progress would continue, but at a pace and pattern that would be insufficient for the incidence of undernutrition to be reduced significantly in the medium-term future. As in the past, world agricultural production is likely to keep up with, and perhaps tend to exceed, the growth of the effective demand for food. The problem will continue to be one of persistence of poverty, leading to growth of the effective demand for food on the part of the poor that would fall short of that required for them to attain levels of consumption compatible with freedom from undernutrition.

Assisting developing countries toward food self-reliance

Per capita food availability in the developing world has increased by 20% since the early 1960s, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, and today the world has twice as many people but 150 million fewer hungry people than in 1960. The world agricultural system has not done too bad a job over the past 35 years. It is likely that global agricultural production will continue to at least match growth in food demand over the next decade, assuming no major weather anomalies. Continued support of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research and programs involving U.S. universities is important to sharing knowledge about agriculture with colleagues in the developing world. This paper explores the reasons for providing agricultural development assistance, the benefits to the United States that come from doing so, and the special challenges facing the world over the next few decades.

Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Ecological approaches and the development of “truly integrated” pest management

Recent predictions of growth in human populations and food supply suggest that there will be a need to substantially increase food production in the near future. One possible approach to meeting this demand, at least in part, is the control of pests and diseases, which currently cause a 30–40% loss in available crop production. In recent years, strategies for controlling pests and diseases have tended to focus on short-term, single-technology interventions, particularly chemical pesticides. This model frequently applies even where so-called integrated pest management strategies are used because in reality, these often are dominated by single technologies (e.g., biocontrol, host plant resistance, or biopesticides) that are used as replacements for chemicals. Very little attention is given to the interaction or compatibility of the different technologies used. Unfortunately, evidence suggests that such approaches rarely yield satisfactory results and are unlikely to provide sustainable pest control solutions for the future. Drawing on two case histories, this paper demonstrates that by increasing our basic understanding of how individual pest control technologies act and interact, new opportunities for improving pest control can be revealed. This approach stresses the need to break away from the existing single-technology, pesticide-dominated paradigm and to adopt a more ecological approach built around a fundamental understanding of population biology at the local farm level and the true integration of renewable technologies such as host plant resistance and natural biological control, which are available to even the most resource-poor farmers.