Evaluating treatment protocols to prevent antibiotic resistance

The spread of bacteria resistant to antimicrobial agents calls for population-wide treatment strategies to delay or reverse the trend toward antibiotic resistance. Here we propose new criteria for the evaluation of the population-wide effects of treatment protocols for directly transmitted bacterial infections and discuss different usage patterns for single and multiple antibiotic therapy. A mathematical model suggests that the long-term benefit of single drug treatment from introduction of the antibiotic until a high frequency of resistance precludes its use is almost independent of the pattern of antibiotic use. When more than one antibiotic is employed, sequential use of different antibiotics in the population (“cycling”) is always inferior to treatment strategies where, at any given time, equal fractions of the population receive different antibiotics. However, treatment of all patients with a combination of antibiotics is in most cases the optimal treatment strategy.

Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

A quantitative method for evaluating the stabilities of nucleic acids

We report a general method for screening, in solution, the impact of deviations from canonical Watson-Crick composition on the thermodynamic stability of nucleic acid duplexes. We demonstrate how fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) can be used to detect directly free energy differences between an initially formed “reference” duplex (usually a Watson-Crick duplex) and a related “test” duplex containing a lesion/alteration of interest (e.g., a mismatch, a modified, a deleted, or a bulged base, etc.). In one application, one titrates into a solution containing a fluorescently labeled, FRET-active, reference duplex, an unlabeled, single-stranded nucleic acid (test strand), which may or may not compete successfully to form a new duplex. When a new duplex forms by strand displacement, it will not exhibit FRET. The resultant titration curve (normalized fluorescence intensity vs. logarithm of test strand concentration) yields a value for the difference in stability (free energy) between the newly formed, test strand-containing duplex and the initial reference duplex. The use of competitive equilibria in this assay allows the measurement of equilibrium association constants that far exceed the magnitudes accessible by conventional titrimetric techniques. Additionally, because of the sensitivity of fluorescence, the method requires several orders of magnitude less material than most other solution methods. We discuss the advantages of this method for detecting and characterizing any modification that alters duplex stability, including, but not limited to, mutagenic lesions. We underscore the wide range of accessible free energy values that can be defined by this method, the applicability of the method in probing for a myriad of nucleic acid variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms, and the potential of the method for high throughput screening.

Evaluating multiple alternative hypotheses for the origin of Bilateria: An analysis of 18S rRNA molecular evidence

Six alternative hypotheses for the phylogenetic origin of Bilateria are evaluated by using complete 18S rRNA gene sequences for 52 taxa. These data suggest that there is little support for three of these hypotheses. Bilateria is not likely to be the sister group of Radiata or Ctenophora, nor is it likely that Bilateria gave rise to Cnidaria or Ctenophora. Instead, these data reveal a close relationship between bilaterians, placozoans, and cnidarians. From this, several inferences can be drawn. Morphological features that previously have been identified as synapomorphies of Bilateria and Ctenophora, e.g., mesoderm, more likely evolved independently in each clade. The endomesodermal muscles of bilaterians may be homologous to the endodermal muscles of cnidarians, implying that the original bilaterian mesodermal muscles were myoepithelial. Placozoans should have a gastrulation stage during development. Of the three hypotheses that cannot be falsified with the 18S rRNA data, one is most strongly supported. This hypothesis states that Bilateria and Placozoa share a more recent common ancestor than either does to Cnidaria. If true, the simplicity of placozoan body architecture is secondarily derived from a more complex ancestor. This simplification may have occurred in association with a planula-type larva becoming reproductive before metamorphosis. If this simplification took place during the common history that placozoans share with bilaterians, then placozoan genes that contain a homeobox, such as Trox2, should be explored, for they may include the gene or genes most closely related to Hox genes of bilaterians.

Evaluating the binding selectivity of transthyretin amyloid fibril inhibitors in blood plasma

Transthyretin (TTR) tetramer dissociation and misfolding facilitate assembly into amyloid fibrils that putatively cause senile systemic amyloidosis and familial amyloid polyneuropathy. We have previously discovered more than 50 small molecules that bind to and stabilize tetrameric TTR, inhibiting amyloid fibril formation in vitro. A method is presented here to evaluate the binding selectivity of these inhibitors to TTR in human plasma, a complex biological fluid composed of more than 60 proteins and numerous small molecules. Our immunoprecipitation approach isolates TTR and bound small molecules from a biological fluid such as plasma, and quantifies the amount of small molecules bound to the protein by HPLC analysis. This approach demonstrates that only a small subset of the inhibitors that saturate the TTR binding sites in vitro do so in plasma. These selective inhibitors can now be tested in animal models of TTR amyloid disease to probe the validity of the amyloid hypothesis. This method could be easily extended to evaluate small molecule binding selectivity to any protein in a given biological fluid without the necessity of determining or guessing which other protein components may be competitors. This is a central issue to understanding the distribution, metabolism, activity, and toxicity of potential drugs.

Evaluating the federal role in financing health-related research

This paper considers the appropriate role for government in the support of scientific and technological progress in health care; the information the federal government needs to make well-informed decisions about its role; and the ways that federal policy toward research and development should respond to scientific advances, technology trends, and changes in the political and social environment. The principal justification for government support of research rests upon economic characteristics that lead private markets to provide inappropriate levels of research support or to supply inappropriate quantities of the products that result from research. The federal government has two basic tools for dealing with these problems: direct subsidies for research and strengthened property rights that can increase the revenues that companies receive for the products that result from research. In the coming years, the delivery system for health care will continue to undergo dramatic changes, new research opportunities will emerge at a rapid pace, and the pressure to limit discretionary federal spending will intensify. These forces make it increasingly important to improve the measurement of the costs and benefits of research and to recognize the tradeoffs among alternative policies for promoting innovation in health care.