Estimating sequestered parasite population dynamics in cerebral malaria

Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a method of estimating this hidden population by using clinical observations of peripheral parasitemia combined with an age-structured mathematical model of the parasite erythrocyte cycle. Applying the model to data from 217 Gambian children undergoing treatment for cerebral malaria we conclude that although artemether clears parasitemia more rapidly than quinine, the clearance of sequestered parasites is similar for the two drugs. The estimated sequestered mass was found to be a more direct predictor of fatal outcome than clinically observed parasitemia. This method allows a sequential analysis of sequestered parasite population dynamics in children suffering from cerebral malaria, and the results offer a possible explanation for why artemether provides less advantage than might have been expected over quinine in reducing mortality despite its rapid effect on circulating parasites.

Estimating the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on insect herbivore populations: A classic study revisited

Although most ecologists agree that both top-down and bottom-up forces (predation and resource limitation, respectively) act in concert to influence populations of herbivores, it has proven difficult to estimate the relative contributions of such forces in terrestrial systems. Using a combination of time–series analysis of population counts recorded over 16 years and experimental data, we present the first estimates of the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on the population dynamics of two terrestrial insect herbivores on the English oak (Quercus robur). Data suggest that temporal variation in winter moth, Operophtera brumata, density is dominated by time-lagged effects of pupal predators. By comparison, spatial variation in O. brumata density is dominated by host–plant quality. Overall, top-down forces explain 34.2% of population variance, bottom-up forces explain 17.2% of population variance, and 48.6% remains unexplained. In contrast, populations of the green oak tortrix, Tortrix viridana, appear dominated by bottom-up forces. Resource limitation, expressed as intraspecific competition among larvae for oak leaves, explains 29.4% of population variance. Host quality effects explain an additional 5.7% of population variance. We detected no major top-down effects on T. viridana populations. An unknown factor causing a linear decline in T. viridana populations over the 16-year study period accounts for most of the remaining unexplained variance. We discuss the observed differences between the insect species and the utility of time–series analysis as a tool in assessing the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up forces on herbivore populations.

Estimating the probability of initiated cell death before tumor induction

The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

Estimating the probability for a protein to have a new fold: A statistical computational model

Structural genomics aims to solve a large number of protein structures that represent the protein space. Currently an exhaustive solution for all structures seems prohibitively expensive, so the challenge is to define a relatively small set of proteins with new, currently unknown folds. This paper presents a method that assigns each protein with a probability of having an unsolved fold. The method makes extensive use of protomap, a sequence-based classification, and scop, a structure-based classification. According to protomap, the protein space encodes the relationship among proteins as a graph whose vertices correspond to 13,354 clusters of proteins. A representative fold for a cluster with at least one solved protein is determined after superposition of all scop (release 1.37) folds onto protomap clusters. Distances within the protomap graph are computed from each representative fold to the neighboring folds. The distribution of these distances is used to create a statistical model for distances among those folds that are already known and those that have yet to be discovered. The distribution of distances for solved/unsolved proteins is significantly different. This difference makes it possible to use Bayes' rule to derive a statistical estimate that any protein has a yet undetermined fold. Proteins that score the highest probability to represent a new fold constitute the target list for structural determination. Our predicted probabilities for unsolved proteins correlate very well with the proportion of new folds among recently solved structures (new scop 1.39 records) that are disjoint from our original training set.

Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Estimating the Excess Investment in Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase in Leaves of Spring Wheat Grown under Elevated CO21

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was grown under CO2 partial pressures of 36 and 70 Pa with two N-application regimes. Responses of photosynthesis to varying CO2 partial pressure were fitted to estimate the maximal carboxylation rate and the nonphotorespiratory respiration rate in flag and preceding leaves. The maximal carboxylation rate was proportional to ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) content, and the light-saturated photosynthetic rate at 70 Pa CO2 was proportional to the thylakoid ATP-synthase content. Potential photosynthetic rates at 70 Pa CO2 were calculated and compared with the observed values to estimate excess investment in Rubisco. The excess was greater in leaves grown with high N application than in those grown with low N application and declined as the leaves senesced. The fraction of Rubisco that was estimated to be in excess was strongly dependent on leaf N content, increasing from approximately 5% in leaves with 1 g N m−2 to approximately 40% in leaves with 2 g N m−2. Growth at elevated CO2 usually decreased the excess somewhat but only as a consequence of a general reduction in leaf N, since relationships between the amount of components and N content were unaffected by CO2. We conclude that there is scope for improving the N-use efficiency of C3 crop species under elevated CO2 conditions.

Estimating Photosynthesis and Concurrent Export Rates in C3 and C4 Species at Ambient and Elevated CO21 2

The ability of 21 C3 and C4 monocot and dicot species to rapidly export newly fixed C in the light at both ambient and enriched CO2 levels was compared. Photosynthesis and concurrent export rates were estimated during isotopic equilibrium of the transport sugars using a steady-state 14CO2-labeling procedure. At ambient CO2 photosynthesis and export rates for C3 species were 5 to 15 and 1 to 10 μmol C m−2 s−1, respectively, and 20 to 30 and 15 to 22 μmol C m−2 s−1, respectively, for C4 species. A linear regression plot of export on photosynthesis rate of all species had a correlation coefficient of 0.87. When concurrent export was expressed as a percentage of photosynthesis, several C3 dicots that produced transport sugars other than Suc had high efflux rates relative to photosynthesis, comparable to those of C4 species. At high CO2 photosynthetic and export rates were only slightly altered in C4 species, and photosynthesis increased but export rates did not in all C3 species. The C3 species that had high efflux rates relative to photosynthesis at ambient CO2 exported at rates comparable to those of C4 species on both an absolute basis and as a percentage of photosynthesis. At ambient CO2 there were strong linear relationships between photosynthesis, sugar synthesis, and concurrent export. However, at high CO2 the relationships between photosynthesis and export rate and between sugar synthesis and export rate were not as strong because sugars and starch were accumulated.

Diffusion-limited contact formation in unfolded cytochrome c: estimating the maximum rate of protein folding.

How fast can a protein fold? The rate of polypeptide collapse to a compact state sets an upper limit to the rate of folding. Collapse may in turn be limited by the rate of intrachain diffusion. To address this question, we have determined the rate at which two regions of an unfolded protein are brought into contact by diffusion. Our nanosecond-resolved spectroscopy shows that under strongly denaturing conditions, regions of unfolded cytochrome separated by approximately 50 residues diffuse together in 35-40 microseconds. This result leads to an estimate of approximately (1 microsecond)-1 as the upper limit for the rate of protein folding.