The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Prospective measurements of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in a cohort of elderly subjects: Relationship to gender, subjective health, smoking habits, and 10-year mortality

The decrease with age of the adrenal-secreted dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) in serum has suggested that it may be causally related to longevity. For the PAQUID [People (Personnes) Aged (Agées) About What (Quid, in Latin)] cohort of elderly subjects, we have previously reported higher DHEAS in men than in women, a decrease with age and, among men, a negative correlation between the DHEAS level and mortality at 2 and 4 years. Here, with an 8-year followup in 290 subjects, we show a global decrease of 2.3% per year for men and 3.9% per year for women. However, in approximately 30% of cases, there was an increase of DHEAS. We observed no relationship between the evolution of DHEAS level and functional, psychological, and mental status, possibly because of selection by death. In women, no association was found between mortality and DHEAS level. In men, the relative risk (RR) of death was higher for the lowest levels of DHEAS (RR = 1.9, P = 0.007), with RR = 6.5, P = 0.003 for those under 70 years old, a result indicating heterogeneity of the population. There was an effect of subjective health on mortality that disappeared after adjustment of DHEAS levels, suggesting its relation with these DHEAS levels. Death RR was much higher in smokers with a low DHEAS level than in nonsmokers with high DHEAS (RR = 6.7, P = 0.001). We submit that the involvement of DHEAS is possibly different according to gender, that association between low DHEAS level and mortality only for men under 70 years old possibly reflects heterogeneity of the population, and that DHEAS level is a reliable predictor of death in male smokers.

Relationships of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in the elderly with functional, psychological, and mental status, and short-term mortality: A French community-based study

In human beings of both sexes, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) circulating in blood is mostly an adrenally secreted steroid whose serum concentration (in the micromolar range and 30–50% higher in men than in women) decreases with age, toward ≈20–10% of its value in young adults during the 8th and 9th decades. The mechanism of action of DHEA and DHEAS is poorly known and may include partial transformation into sex steroids, increase of bioavailable insulin-like growth factor I, and effects on neurotransmitter receptors. Whether there is a cause-to-effect relationship between the decreasing levels of DHEAS with age and physiological and pathological manifestations of aging is still undecided, but this is of obvious theoretical and practical interest in view of the easy restoration by DHEA administration. Here we report on 622 subjects over 65 years of age, studied for the 4 years since DHEAS baseline values had been obtained, in the frame of the PAQUID program, analyzing the functional, psychological, and mental status of a community-based population in the south-west of France. We confirm the continuing decrease of DHEAS serum concentration with age, more in men than in women, even if men retain higher levels. Significantly lower values of baseline DHEAS were recorded in women in cases of functional limitation (Instrumental Activities of Daily Living), confinement, dyspnea, depressive symptomatology, poor subjective perception of health and life satisfaction, and usage of various medications. In men, there was a trend for the same correlations, even though not statistically significant in most categories. No differences in DHEAS levels were found in cases of incident dementia in the following 4 years. In men (but not in women), lower DHEAS was significantly associated with increased short-term mortality at 2 and 4 years after baseline measurement. These results, statistically established by taking into account corrections for age, sex, and health indicators, suggest the need for further careful trials of the administration of replacement doses of DHEA in aging humans. Indeed, the first noted results of such “treatment” are consistent with correlations observed here between functional and psychological status and endogenous steroid serum concentrations.

Blood pressure and mortality in elderly people aged 85 and older: community based study

Objective: To determine whether the inverse relation between blood pressure and all cause mortality in elderly people over 85 years of age can be explained by adjusting for health status, and to determine whether high blood pressure is a risk factor for mortality when the effects of poor health are accounted for.

Are the returns to technological change in health care declining?

Whether the U.S. health care system supports too much technological change—so that new technologies of low value are adopted, or worthwhile technologies become overused—is a controversial question. This paper analyzes the marginal value of technological change for elderly heart attack patients in 1984–1990. It estimates the additional benefits and costs of treatment by hospitals that are likely to adopt new technologies first or use them most intensively. If the overall value of the additional treatments is declining, then the benefits of treatment by such intensive hospitals relative to other hospitals should decline, and the additional costs of treatment by such hospitals should rise. To account for unmeasured changes in patient mix across hospitals that might bias the results, instrumental–variables methods are used to estimate the incremental mortality benefits and costs. The results do not support the view that the returns to technological change are declining. However, the incremental value of treatment by intensive hospitals is low throughout the study period, supporting the view that new technologies are overused.