Detection of 400-year-old Yersinia pestis DNA in human dental pulp: An approach to the diagnosis of ancient septicemia

Ancient septicemic plague epidemics were reported to have killed millions of people for 2 millenniums. However, confident diagnosis of ancient septicemia solely on the basis of historical clinical observations is not possible. The lack of suitable infected material has prevented direct demonstration of ancient septicemia; thus, the history of most infections such as plague remains hypothetical. The durability of dental pulp, together with its natural sterility, makes it a suitable material on which to base such research. We hypothesized that it would be a lasting refuge for Yersinia pestis, the plague agent. DNA extracts were made from the dental pulp of 12 unerupted teeth extracted from skeletons excavated from 16th and 18th century French graves of persons thought to have died of plague (“plague teeth”) and from 7 ancient negative control teeth. PCRs incorporating ancient DNA extracts and primers specific for the human β-globin gene demonstrated the absence of inhibitors in these preparations. The incorporation of primers specific for Y. pestis rpoB (the RNA polymerase β-subunit-encoding gene) and the recognized virulence-associated pla (the plasminogen activator-encoding gene) repeatedly yielded products that had a nucleotide sequence indistinguishable from that of modern day isolates of the bacterium. The specific pla sequence was obtained from 6 of 12 plague skeleton teeth but 0 of 7 negative controls (P < 0.034, Fisher exact test). A nucleic acid-based confirmation of ancient plague was achieved for historically identified victims, and we have confirmed the presence of the disease at the end of 16th century in France. Dental pulp is an attractive target in the quest to determine the etiology of septicemic illnesses detected in ancient corpses. Molecular techniques could be applied to this material to resolve historical outbreaks.

Yersinia pestis, the cause of plague, is a recently emerged clone of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis

Plague, one of the most devastating diseases of human history, is caused by Yersinia pestis. In this study, we analyzed the population genetic structure of Y. pestis and the two other pathogenic Yersinia species, Y. pseudotuberculosis and Y. enterocolitica. Fragments of five housekeeping genes and a gene involved in the synthesis of lipopolysaccharide were sequenced from 36 strains representing the global diversity of Y. pestis and from 12–13 strains from each of the other species. No sequence diversity was found in any Y. pestis gene, and these alleles were identical or nearly identical to alleles from Y. pseudotuberculosis. Thus, Y. pestis is a clone that evolved from Y. pseudotuberculosis 1,500–20,000 years ago, shortly before the first known pandemics of human plague. Three biovars (Antiqua, Medievalis, and Orientalis) have been distinguished by microbiologists within the Y. pestis clone. These biovars form distinct branches of a phylogenetic tree based on restriction fragment length polymorphisms of the locations of the IS100 insertion element. These data are consistent with previous inferences that Antiqua caused a plague pandemic in the sixth century, Medievalis caused the Black Death and subsequent epidemics during the second pandemic wave, and Orientalis caused the current plague pandemic.

Climate and infectious disease: Use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement

It has long been known that cholera outbreaks can be initiated when Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium that causes cholera, is present in drinking water in sufficient numbers to constitute an infective dose, if ingested by humans. Outbreaks associated with drinking or bathing in unpurified river or brackish water may directly or indirectly depend on such conditions as water temperature, nutrient concentration, and plankton production that may be favorable for growth and reproduction of the bacterium. Although these environmental parameters have routinely been measured by using water samples collected aboard research ships, the available data sets are sparse and infrequent. Furthermore, shipboard data acquisition is both expensive and time-consuming. Interpolation to regional scales can also be problematic. Although the bacterium, V. cholerae, cannot be sensed directly, remotely sensed data can be used to infer its presence. In the study reported here, satellite data were used to monitor the timing and spread of cholera. Public domain remote sensing data for the Bay of Bengal were compared directly with cholera case data collected in Bangladesh from 1992–1995. The remote sensing data included sea surface temperature and sea surface height. It was discovered that sea surface temperature shows an annual cycle similar to the cholera case data. Sea surface height may be an indicator of incursion of plankton-laden water inland, e.g., tidal rivers, because it was also found to be correlated with cholera outbreaks. The extensive studies accomplished during the past 25 years, confirming the hypothesis that V. cholerae is autochthonous to the aquatic environment and is a commensal of zooplankton, i.e., copepods, when combined with the findings of the satellite data analyses, provide strong evidence that cholera epidemics are climate-linked.

A distinctive clade B HIV type 1 is heterosexually transmitted in Trinidad and Tobago

HIV-1 transmission worldwide is predominantly associated with heterosexual activity, and non-clade B viruses account for the most spread. The HIV-1 epidemic in Trinidad/Tobago and the Caribbean shares many features with such heterosexual epidemics, including a prominent role for coincident sexually transmitted diseases. This study evaluates the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Trinidad/Tobago during a period when abrupt transition from homosexual to heterosexual transmission occurred in the absence of injecting drug use, concomitant with a rapid rise in HIV-1 prevalence in the heterosexual population. Of 31 viral isolates studied during 1987–1995, all cluster with subtype B reference strains. In the analysis of full env genes from 22 early seroconverters, the Trinidad isolates constitute a significant subcluster within the B subtype. The Trinidad V3 consensus sequence differs by a single amino acid from the prototype B V3 consensus and demonstrates stability over the decade of this study. In the majority of isolates, the V3 loop of env contains a signature threonine deletion that marks the lineage of the Trinidad HIV-1 clade B epidemic from pre-1984. No phenotypic features, including syncitium induction, neutralization profiles, and chemokine receptor usage, distinguish this virus population from other subtype B viruses. Thus, although the subtype B HIV-1 viruses being transmitted in Trinidad are genetically distinguishable from other subtype B viruses, this is probably the result of a strong founder effect in a geographically circumscribed population rather than genetic selection for heterosexual transmission. These results demonstrate that canonical clade B HIV-1 can generate a typical heterosexual epidemic.

Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety

The utility of live attenuated vaccines for controlling HIV epidemics is being debated. Live attenuated HIV vaccines (LAHVs) could be extremely effective in protecting against infection with wild-type strains, but may not be completely safe as the attenuated strain could cause AIDS in some vaccinated individuals. We present a theoretical framework for evaluating the consequences of the tradeoff between vaccine efficacy (in terms of preventing new infections with wild-type strains) and safety (in terms of vaccine-induced AIDS deaths). We use our framework to predict, for Zimbabwe and Thailand, the epidemiological impact of 1,000 different (specified by efficacy and safety characteristics) LAHVs. We predict that paradoxically: (i) in Zimbabwe (where transmission is high) LAHVs would significantly decrease the AIDS death rate, but (ii) in Thailand (where transmission is low) exactly the same vaccines (in terms of efficacy and safety characteristics) would increase the AIDS death rate. Our results imply that a threshold transmission rate exists that determines whether any given LAHV has a beneficial or a detrimental impact. We also determine the vaccine perversity point, which is defined in terms of the fraction of vaccinated individuals who progress to AIDS as a result of the vaccine strain. Vaccination with any LAHV that causes more than 5% of vaccinated individuals to progress to AIDS in 25 years would, even 50 years later, lead to perversity (i.e., increase the annual AIDS death rate) in Thailand; these same vaccines would lead to decreases in the annual AIDS death rate in Zimbabwe.

Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A

We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain’s epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 ± 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 ± 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 ± 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.

The effect of cultivation on the size, shape, and persistence of disease patches in fields

Epidemics of soil-borne plant disease are characterized by patchiness because of restricted dispersal of inoculum. The density of inoculum within disease patches depends on a sequence comprising local amplification during the parasitic phase followed by dispersal of inoculum by cultivation during the intercrop period. The mechanisms that control size, shape, and persistence have received very little rigorous attention in epidemiological theory. Here we derive a model for dispersal of inoculum in soil by cultivation that takes account into the discrete stochastic nature of the system in time and space. Two parameters, probability of movement and mean dispersal distance, characterize lateral dispersal of inoculum by cultivation. The dispersal parameters are used in combination with the characteristic area and dimensions of host plants to identify criteria that control the shape and size of disease patches. We derive a critical value for the probability of movement for the formation of cross-shaped patches and show that this is independent of the amount of inoculum. We examine the interaction between local amplification of inoculum by parasitic activity and subsequent dilution by dispersal and identify criteria whereby asymptomatic patches may persist as inoculum falls below a threshold necessary for symptoms to appear in the subsequent crop. The model is motivated by the spread of rhizomania, an economically important soil-borne disease of sugar beet. However, the results have broad applicability to a very wide range of diseases that survive as discrete units of inoculum. The application of the model to patch dynamics of weed seeds and local introductions of genetically modified seeds is also discussed.

Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics.

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.

Emergence of a new epidemic/epizootic Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus in South America.

One of the most important questions in arbovirology concerns the origin of epidemic Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) viruses; these viruses caused periodic, extensive epidemics/epizootics in the Americas from 1938-1973 (reaching the United States in 1971) but had recently been presumed extinct. We have documented the 1992 emergence of a new epidemic/epizootic VEE virus in Venezuela. Phylogenetic analysis of strains isolated during two outbreaks indicated that the new epidemic/epizootic virus(es) evolved recently from an enzootic VEE virus in northern South America. These results suggest continued emergence of epizootic VEE viruses; surveillance of enzootic viruses and routine vaccination of equines should therefore be resumed.