Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Instability of repetitive DNA sequences: The role of replication in multiple mechanisms

Rearrangements between tandem sequence homologies of various lengths are a major source of genomic change and can be deleterious to the organism. These rearrangements can result in either deletion or duplication of genetic material flanked by direct sequence repeats. Molecular genetic analysis of repetitive sequence instability in Escherichia coli has provided several clues to the underlying mechanisms of these rearrangements. We present evidence for three mechanisms of RecA-independent sequence rearrangements: simple replication slippage, sister-chromosome exchange-associated slippage, and single-strand annealing. We discuss the constraints of these mechanisms and contrast their properties with RecA-dependent homologous recombination. Replication plays a critical role in the two slipped misalignment mechanisms, and difficulties in replication appear to trigger rearrangements via all these mechanisms.