Titration of chaos with added noise

Deterministic chaos has been implicated in numerous natural and man-made complex phenomena ranging from quantum to astronomical scales and in disciplines as diverse as meteorology, physiology, ecology, and economics. However, the lack of a definitive test of chaos vs. random noise in experimental time series has led to considerable controversy in many fields. Here we propose a numerical titration procedure as a simple “litmus test” for highly sensitive, specific, and robust detection of chaos in short noisy data without the need for intensive surrogate data testing. We show that the controlled addition of white or colored noise to a signal with a preexisting noise floor results in a titration index that: (i) faithfully tracks the onset of deterministic chaos in all standard bifurcation routes to chaos; and (ii) gives a relative measure of chaos intensity. Such reliable detection and quantification of chaos under severe conditions of relatively low signal-to-noise ratio is of great interest, as it may open potential practical ways of identifying, forecasting, and controlling complex behaviors in a wide variety of physical, biomedical, and socioeconomic systems.

Chaos, but in voting and apportionments?

Mathematical chaos and related concepts are used to explain and resolve issues ranging from voting paradoxes to the apportioning of congressional seats.

Ecological chaos in the wake of invasion.

Irregularities in observed population densities have traditionally been attributed to discretization of the underlying dynamics. We propose an alternative explanation by demonstrating the evolution of spatiotemporal chaos in reaction-diffusion models for predator-prey interactions. The chaos is generated naturally in the wake of invasive waves of predators. We discuss in detail the mechanism by which the chaos is generated. By considering a mathematical caricature of the predator-prey models, we go on to explain the dynamical origin of the irregular behavior and to justify our assertion that the behavior we present is a genuine example of spatiotemporal chaos.