Cumulative risk adjusted mortality chart for detecting changes in death rate: observational study of heart surgery

Objective: To detect changes in mortality after surgery, with allowance being made for variations in case mix.

In vivo estimates of division and death rates of human T lymphocytes.

We present data on the decay, after radiotherapy, of naive and memory human T lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage. These data are analyzed in conjunction with existing data on the decay of naive and memory T lymphocytes with unstable chromosome damage and older data on unsorted lymphocytes. The analyses yield in vivo estimates for some life-history parameters of human T lymphocytes. Best estimates of proliferation rates have naive lymphocytes dividing once every 3.5 years and memory lymphocytes dividing once every 22 weeks. It appears that memory lymphocytes can revert to the naive phenotype, but only, on average, after 3.5 years in the memory class. The lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage decay very slowly, yielding surprisingly low estimates of their death rate. The estimated parameters are used in a simple mathematical model of the population dynamics of undamaged naive and memory lymphocytes. We use this model to illustrate that it is possible for the unprimed subset of a constantly stimulated clone to stay small, even when there is a large population of specific primed cells reverting to the unprimed state.

Correlated effects of sperm competition and postmating female mortality

Adaptations in one sex may impair fitness in the opposite sex. Experiments with Drosophila melanogaster have shown that seminal fluid from the male accessory gland triggers a series of postmating responses in the female, including increased egg laying rate and lower remating propensity, but that accessory gland proteins also increase female death rate. Here, we tested the relationships among the longevity of females mated to males from 51 chromosome-extracted D. melanogaster lines, male-mating ability, and sperm-competitive ability. We found significant differences in longevity of females mated to males of different genotypes, and all mated females showed a higher death rate than control virgin females shortly after mating. Both the age-independent mortality parameter (the intercept of the female's survival function) and the slope of the mortality rate curve were significantly correlated with the proportion of progeny sired by the first male to mate relative to tester males (sperm-defense ability, P1). No significant correlation was found between the proportion of progeny sired by the second-mating male relative to tester males (sperm-offense ability, P2) and any mortality parameter. Our results support the hypothesis of a tradeoff between defensive sperm-competitive ability of males and life-history parameters of mated females.

Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety

The utility of live attenuated vaccines for controlling HIV epidemics is being debated. Live attenuated HIV vaccines (LAHVs) could be extremely effective in protecting against infection with wild-type strains, but may not be completely safe as the attenuated strain could cause AIDS in some vaccinated individuals. We present a theoretical framework for evaluating the consequences of the tradeoff between vaccine efficacy (in terms of preventing new infections with wild-type strains) and safety (in terms of vaccine-induced AIDS deaths). We use our framework to predict, for Zimbabwe and Thailand, the epidemiological impact of 1,000 different (specified by efficacy and safety characteristics) LAHVs. We predict that paradoxically: (i) in Zimbabwe (where transmission is high) LAHVs would significantly decrease the AIDS death rate, but (ii) in Thailand (where transmission is low) exactly the same vaccines (in terms of efficacy and safety characteristics) would increase the AIDS death rate. Our results imply that a threshold transmission rate exists that determines whether any given LAHV has a beneficial or a detrimental impact. We also determine the vaccine perversity point, which is defined in terms of the fraction of vaccinated individuals who progress to AIDS as a result of the vaccine strain. Vaccination with any LAHV that causes more than 5% of vaccinated individuals to progress to AIDS in 25 years would, even 50 years later, lead to perversity (i.e., increase the annual AIDS death rate) in Thailand; these same vaccines would lead to decreases in the annual AIDS death rate in Zimbabwe.

Reduced fetal growth rate and increased risk of death from ischaemic heart disease: cohort study of 15 000 Swedish men and women born 1915-29

Objective: To establish whether fetal growth rate (as distinct from size at birth) is associated with mortality from ischaemic heart disease.

Estimating the probability of initiated cell death before tumor induction

The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

Mice transgenically overexpressing sulfonylurea receptor 1 in forebrain resist seizure induction and excitotoxic neuron death

The ability of the sulfonylurea receptor (SUR) 1 to suppress seizures and excitotoxic neuron damage was assessed in mice transgenically overexpressing this receptor. Fertilized eggs from FVB mice were injected with a construct containing SUR cDNA and a calcium-calmodulin kinase IIα promoter. The resulting mice showed normal gross anatomy, brain morphology and histology, and locomotor and cognitive behavior. However, they overexpressed the SUR1 transgene, yielding a 9- to 12-fold increase in the density of [3H]glibenclamide binding to the cortex, hippocampus, and striatum. These mice resisted kainic acid-induced seizures, showing a 36% decrease in average maximum seizure intensity and a 75% survival rate at a dose that killed 53% of the wild-type mice. Kainic acid-treated transgenic mice showed no significant loss of hippocampal pyramidal neurons or expression of heat shock protein 70, whereas wild-type mice lost 68–79% of pyramidal neurons in the CA1–3 subfields and expressed high levels of heat shock protein 70 after kainate administration. These results indicate that the transgenic overexpression of SUR1 alone in forebrain structures significantly protects mice from seizures and neuronal damage without interfering with locomotor or cognitive function.

The high spontaneous mutation rate: Is it a health risk?*

The human mutation rate for base substitutions is much higher in males than in females and increases with paternal age. This effect is mainly, if not entirely, due to the large number of cell divisions in the male germ line. The mutation-rate increase is considerably greater than expected if the mutation rate were simply proportional to the number of cell divisions. In contrast, those mutations that are small deletions or rearrangements do not show the paternal age effect. The observed increase with the age of the father in the incidence of children with different dominant mutations is variable, presumably the result of different mixtures of base substitutions and deletions. In Drosophila, the rate of mutations causing minor deleterious effects is estimated to be about one new mutation per zygote. Because of a larger number of genes and a much larger amount of DNA, the human rate is presumably higher. Recently, the Drosophila data have been reanalyzed and the mutation-rate estimate questioned, but I believe that the totality of evidence supports the original conclusion. The most reasonable way in which a species can cope with a high mutation rate is by quasi-truncation selection, whereby a number of mutant genes are eliminated by one “genetic death.”

Deficiency of rds/peripherin causes photoreceptor death in mouse models of digenic and dominant retinitis pigmentosa

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is a group of inherited blinding diseases caused by mutations in multiple genes including RDS. RDS encodes rds/peripherin (rds), a 36-kDa glycoprotein in the rims of rod and cone outer-segment (OS) discs. Rom1 is related to rds with similar membrane topology and the identical distribution in OS. In contrast to RDS, no mutations in ROM1 alone have been associated with retinal disease. However, an unusual digenic form of RP has been described. Affected individuals in several families were doubly heterozygous for a mutation in RDS causing a leucine 185 to proline substitution in rds (L185P) and a null mutation in ROM1. Neither mutation alone caused clinical abnormalities. Here, we generated transgenic/knockout mice that duplicate the amino acid substitutions and predicted levels of rds and rom1 in patients with RDS-mediated digenic and dominant RP. Photoreceptor degeneration in the mouse model of digenic RP was faster than in the wild-type and monogenic controls by histological, electroretinographic, and biochemical analysis. We observed a positive correlation between the rate of photoreceptor loss and the extent of OS disorganization in mice of several genotypes. Photoreceptor degeneration in RDS-mediated RP appears to be caused by a simple deficiency of rds and rom1. The critical threshold for the combined abundance of rds and rom1 is ≈60% of wild type. Below this value, the extent of OS disorganization results in clinically significant photoreceptor degeneration.

Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants.

Nonlinear analyses of infant heart rhythms reveal a marked rise in the complexity of the electrocardiogram with maturation. We find that normal mature infants (gestation greater than or equal to 35 weeks) have complex and distinctly nonlinear heart rhythms (consistent with recent reports for healthy adults) but that such nonlinearity is lacking in preterm infants (gestation > or = to 27 weeks) where parasympathetic-sympathetic interaction and function are presumed to be less well developed. Our study further shows that infants with clinical brain death and those treated with atropine exhibit a similar lack of nonlinear feedback control. These three lines of evidence support the hypothesis championed by Goldberger et al. [Goldberger, A.L., Rigney, D.R. & West, B.J. (1990) Sci. Am. 262, 43-49] that autonomic nervous system control underlies the nonlinearity and possible chaos of normal heart rhythms. This report demonstrates the acquisition of nonlinear heart rate dynamics and possible chaos in developing human infants and its loss in brain death and with the administration of atropine. It parallels earlier work documenting changes in the variability of heart rhythms in each of these cases and suggests that nonlinearity may provide additional power in characterizing physiological states.