A joint hazard and time scaling model to compare survival curves.

To provide a more general method for comparing survival experience, we propose a model that independently scales both hazard and time dimensions. To test the curve shape similarity of two time-dependent hazards, h1(t) and h2(t), we apply the proposed hazard relationship, h12(tKt)/ h1(t) = Kh, to h1. This relationship doubly scales h1 by the constant hazard and time scale factors, Kh and Kt, producing a transformed hazard, h12, with the same underlying curve shape as h1. We optimize the match of h12 to h2 by adjusting Kh and Kt. The corresponding survival relationship S12(tKt) = [S1(t)]KtKh transforms S1 into a new curve S12 of the same underlying shape that can be matched to the original S2. We apply this model to the curves for regional and local breast cancer contained in the National Cancer Institute's End Results Registry (1950-1973). Scaling the original regional curves, h1 and S1 with Kt = 1.769 and Kh = 0.263 produces transformed curves h12 and S12 that display congruence with the respective local curves, h2 and S2. This similarity of curve shapes suggests the application of the more complete curve shapes for regional disease as templates to predict the long-term survival pattern for local disease. By extension, this similarity raises the possibility of scaling early data for clinical trial curves according to templates of registry or previous trial curves, projecting long-term outcomes and reducing costs. The proposed model includes as special cases the widely used proportional hazards (Kt = 1) and accelerated life (KtKh = 1) models.

Acceleration of atherogenesis by COX-1-dependent prostanoid formation in low density lipoprotein receptor knockout mice

The cyclooxygenase (COX) product, prostacyclin (PGI2), inhibits platelet activation and vascular smooth-muscle cell migration and proliferation. Biochemically selective inhibition of COX-2 reduces PGI2 biosynthesis substantially in humans. Because deletion of the PGI2 receptor accelerates atherogenesis in the fat-fed low density lipoprotein receptor knockout mouse, we wished to determine whether selective inhibition of COX-2 would accelerate atherogenesis in this model. To address this hypothesis, we used dosing with nimesulide, which inhibited COX-2 ex vivo, depressed urinary 2,3 dinor 6-keto PGF1α by approximately 60% but had no effect on thromboxane formation by platelets, which only express COX-1. By contrast, the isoform nonspecific inhibitor, indomethacin, suppressed platelet function and thromboxane formation ex vivo and in vivo, coincident with effects on PGI2 biosynthesis indistinguishable from nimesulide. Indomethacin reduced the extent of atherosclerosis by 55 ± 4%, whereas nimesulide failed to increase the rate of atherogenesis. Despite their divergent effects on atherogenesis, both drugs depressed two indices of systemic inflammation, soluble intracellular adhesion molecule-1, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 to a similar but incomplete degree. Neither drug altered serum lipids and the marked increase in vascular expression of COX-2 during atherogenesis. Accelerated progression of atherosclerosis is unlikely during chronic intake of specific COX-2 inhibitors. Furthermore, evidence that COX-1-derived prostanoids contribute to atherogenesis suggests that controlled evaluation of the effects of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or aspirin on plaque progression in humans is timely.

Elevated interleukin 6 is induced by prostaglandin E2 in a murine model of inflammation: possible role of cyclooxygenase-2.

Injection of mineral oils such as pristane into the peritoneal cavities of BALB/c mice results in a chronic peritonitis associated with high tissue levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6). Here we show that increased prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) synthesis causes induction of IL-6 and that expression of an inducible cyclooxygenase, Cox-2, may mediate this process. Levels of both PGE2 and IL-6 are elevated in inflammatory exudates from pristane-treated mice compared with lavage samples from untreated mice. The Cox-2 gene is induced in the peritoneal macrophage fraction isolated from the mice. A cause and effect relationship between increased macrophage PGE2 and IL-6 production is shown in vitro. When peritoneal macrophages are activated with an inflammatory stimulus (polymerized albumin), the Cox-2 gene is induced and secretion of PGE2 and IL-6 increases, with elevated PGE2 appearing before IL-6. Cotreatment with 1 microM indomethacin inhibits PGE2 production by the cells and reduces the induction of IL-6 mRNA but has no effect on Cox-2 mRNA, consistent with the fact that the drug inhibits catalytic activity of the cyclooxygenase but does not affect expression of the gene. Addition of exogenous PGE2 to macrophages induces IL-6 protein and mRNA synthesis, indicating that the eicosanoid stimulates IL-6 production at the level of gene expression. PGE2-stimulated IL-6 production is unaffected by addition of indomethacin. Taken together with the earlier finding that indomethacin diminishes the elevation of IL-6 in pristane-treated mice, the results show that PGE2 can induce IL-6 production in vivo and implicate expression of the Cox-2 gene in the regulation of this cytokine.