Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

Analysis and interpretation of cost data in randomised controlled trials: review of published studies

Objective To review critically the statistical methods used for health economic evaluations in randomised controlled trials where an estimate of cost is available for each patient in the study.

Cosmic velocity fields and their interpretation

We review the current status of our knowledge of cosmic velocity fields, on both small and large scales. A new statistic is described that characterizes the incoherent, thermal component of the velocity field on scales less than 2h−1 Mpc (h is H0/100 km·s−1·Mpc−1, where H0 is the Hubble constant and 1 Mpc = 3.09 × 1022 m) and smaller. The derived velocity is found to be quite stable across different catalogs and is of remarkably low amplitude, consistent with an effective Ω ∼ 0.15 on this scale. We advocate the use of this statistic as a standard diagnostic of the small-scale kinetic energy of the galaxy distribution. The analysis of large-scale flows probes the velocity field on scales of 10–60 h−1 Mpc and should be adequately described by linear perturbation theory. Recent work has focused on the comparison of gravity or density fields derived from whole-sky redshift surveys of galaxies [e.g., the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS)] with velocity fields derived from a variety of sources. All the algorithms that directly compare the gravity and velocity fields suggest low values of the density parameter, while the POTENT analysis, using the same data but comparing the derived IRAS galaxy density field with the Mark-III derived matter density field, leads to much higher estimates of the inferred density. Since the IRAS and Mark-III fields are not fully consistent with each other, the present discrepancies might result from the very different weighting applied to the data in the competing methods.

Desensitization of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors: a problem of interpretation.

The phenomenon of desensitization is universal, but its mechanism is still ill-understood and controversial. A recently published study [Lin, F. & Stevens, C. F. (1994) J. Neurosci, 14, 2153-2160] attempted to cast light on the mechanism of desensitization of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, in particular the vexed question of whether the channel must open before it can desensitize. During the desensitizing preexposure to agonist in those experiments, more desensitization was produced when channel openings were observed than when no openings were observed. The conclusion that "desensitization occurs more rapidly from the open state" unfortunately was based on a stochastic fallacy, and we present here a theoretical treatment and illustration showing that the observed behavior is predicted by a simple mechanism in which desensitization can occur only from a shut state.

Structural interpretation of the mutations in the beta-cardiac myosin that have been implicated in familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

In 10-30% of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy kindreds, the disease is caused by > 29 missense mutations in the cardiac beta-myosin heavy chain (MYH7) gene. The amino acid sequence similarity between chicken skeletal muscle and human beta-cardiac myosin and the three-dimensional structure of the chicken skeletal muscle myosin head have provided the opportunity to examine the structural consequences of these naturally occurring mutations in human beta-cardiac myosin. This study demonstrates that the mutations are related to distinct structural and functional domains. Twenty-four are clustered around four specific locations in the myosin head that are (i) associated with the actin binding interface, (ii) around the nucleotide binding site, (iii) adjacent to the region that connects the two reactive cysteine residues, and (iv) in close proximity to the interface of the heavy chain with the essential light chain. The remaining five mutations are in the myosin rod. The locations of these mutations provide insight into the way they impair the functioning of this molecular motor and also into the mechanism of energy transduction.