Chaos, but in voting and apportionments?

Mathematical chaos and related concepts are used to explain and resolve issues ranging from voting paradoxes to the apportioning of congressional seats.

Titration of chaos with added noise

Deterministic chaos has been implicated in numerous natural and man-made complex phenomena ranging from quantum to astronomical scales and in disciplines as diverse as meteorology, physiology, ecology, and economics. However, the lack of a definitive test of chaos vs. random noise in experimental time series has led to considerable controversy in many fields. Here we propose a numerical titration procedure as a simple “litmus test” for highly sensitive, specific, and robust detection of chaos in short noisy data without the need for intensive surrogate data testing. We show that the controlled addition of white or colored noise to a signal with a preexisting noise floor results in a titration index that: (i) faithfully tracks the onset of deterministic chaos in all standard bifurcation routes to chaos; and (ii) gives a relative measure of chaos intensity. Such reliable detection and quantification of chaos under severe conditions of relatively low signal-to-noise ratio is of great interest, as it may open potential practical ways of identifying, forecasting, and controlling complex behaviors in a wide variety of physical, biomedical, and socioeconomic systems.

A simple explanation for taxon abundance patterns

For taxonomic levels higher than species, the abundance distributions of the number of subtaxa per taxon tend to approximate power laws but often show strong deviations from such laws. Previously, these deviations were attributed to finite-time effects in a continuous-time branching process at the generic level. Instead, we describe herein a simple discrete branching process that generates the observed distributions and find that the distribution's deviation from power law form is not caused by disequilibration, but rather that it is time independent and determined by the evolutionary properties of the taxa of interest. Our model predicts—with no free parameters—the rank-frequency distribution of the number of families in fossil marine animal orders obtained from the fossil record. We find that near power law distributions are statistically almost inevitable for taxa higher than species. The branching model also sheds light on species-abundance patterns, as well as on links between evolutionary processes, self-organized criticality, and fractals.

Temporal fluctuations in coherence of brain waves.

As a measure of dynamical structure, short-term fluctuations of coherence between 0.3 and 100 Hz in the electroencephalogram (EEG) of humans were studied from recordings made by chronic subdural macroelectrodes 5-10 mm apart, on temporal, frontal, and parietal lobes, and from intracranial probes deep in the temporal lobe, including the hippocampus, during sleep, alert, and seizure states. The time series of coherence between adjacent sites calculated every second or less often varies widely in stability over time; sometimes it is stable for half a minute or more. Within 2-min samples, coherence commonly fluctuates by a factor up to 2-3, in all bands, within the time scale of seconds to tens of seconds. The power spectrum of the time series of these fluctuations is broad, extending to 0.02 Hz or slower, and is weighted toward the slower frequencies; little power is faster than 0.5 Hz. Some records show conspicuous swings with a preferred duration of 5-15s, either irregularly or quasirhythmically with a broad peak around 0.1 Hz. Periodicity is not statistically significant in most records. In our sampling, we have not found a consistent difference between lobes of the brain, subdural and depth electrodes, or sleeping and waking states. Seizures generally raise the mean coherence in all frequencies and may reduce the fluctuations by a ceiling effect. The coherence time series of different bands is positively correlated (0.45 overall); significant nonindependence extends for at least two octaves. Coherence fluctuations are quite local; the time series of adjacent electrodes is correlated with that of the nearest neighbor pairs (10 mm) to a coefficient averaging approximately 0.4, falling to approximately 0.2 for neighbors-but-one (20 mm) and to < 0.1 for neighbors-but-two (30 mm). The evidence indicates fine structure in time and space, a dynamic and local determination of this measure of cooperativity. Widely separated frequencies tending to fluctuate together exclude independent oscillators as the general or usual basis of the EEG, although a few rhythms are well known under special conditions. Broad-band events may be the more usual generators. Loci only a few millimeters apart can fluctuate widely in seconds, either in parallel or independently. Scalp EEG coherence cannot be predicted from subdural or deep recordings, or vice versa, and intracortical microelectrodes show still greater coherence fluctuation in space and time. Widely used computations of chaos and dimensionality made upon data from scalp or even subdural or depth electrodes, even when reproducible in successive samples, cannot be considered representative of the brain or the given structure or brain state but only of the scale or view (receptive field) of the electrodes used. Relevant to the evolution of more complex brains, which is an outstanding fact of animal evolution, we believe that measures of cooperativity are likely to be among the dynamic features by which major evolutionary grades of brains differ.

Symmetries in geology and geophysics

Symmetries have played an important role in a variety of problems in geology and geophysics. A large fraction of studies in mineralogy are devoted to the symmetry properties of crystals. In this paper, however, the emphasis will be on scale-invariant (fractal) symmetries. The earth’s topography is an example of both statistically self-similar and self-affine fractals. Landforms are also associated with drainage networks, which are statistical fractal trees. A universal feature of drainage networks and other growth networks is side branching. Deterministic space-filling networks with side-branching symmetries are illustrated. It is shown that naturally occurring drainage networks have symmetries similar to diffusion-limited aggregation clusters.

Dynamical hierarchy in transition states: Why and how does a system climb over the mountain?

How a reacting system climbs through a transition state during the course of a reaction has been an intriguing subject for decades. Here we present and quantify a technique to identify and characterize local invariances about the transition state of an N-particle Hamiltonian system, using Lie canonical perturbation theory combined with microcanonical molecular dynamics simulation. We show that at least three distinct energy regimes of dynamical behavior occur in the region of the transition state, distinguished by the extent of their local dynamical invariance and regularity. Isomerization of a six-atom Lennard–Jones cluster illustrates this: up to energies high enough to make the system manifestly chaotic, approximate invariants of motion associated with a reaction coordinate in phase space imply a many-body dividing hypersurface in phase space that is free of recrossings even in a sea of chaos. The method makes it possible to visualize the stable and unstable invariant manifolds leading to and from the transition state, i.e., the reaction path in phase space, and how this regularity turns to chaos with increasing total energy of the system. This, in turn, illuminates a new type of phase space bottleneck in the region of a transition state that emerges as the total energy and mode coupling increase, which keeps a reacting system increasingly trapped in that region.

Order and disorder in fluid motion.

The development of complex states of fluid motion is illustrated by reviewing a series of experiments, emphasizing film flows, surface waves, and thermal convection. In one dimension, cellular patterns bifurcate to states of spatiotemporal chaos. In two dimensions, even ordered patterns can be surprisingly intricate when quasiperiodic patterns are included. Spatiotemporal chaos is best characterized statistically, and methods for doing so are evolving. Transport and mixing phenomena can also lead to spatial complexity, but the degree depends on the significance of molecular or thermal diffusion.

Ecological chaos in the wake of invasion.

Irregularities in observed population densities have traditionally been attributed to discretization of the underlying dynamics. We propose an alternative explanation by demonstrating the evolution of spatiotemporal chaos in reaction-diffusion models for predator-prey interactions. The chaos is generated naturally in the wake of invasive waves of predators. We discuss in detail the mechanism by which the chaos is generated. By considering a mathematical caricature of the predator-prey models, we go on to explain the dynamical origin of the irregular behavior and to justify our assertion that the behavior we present is a genuine example of spatiotemporal chaos.