Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution

Although panel discussants disagreed whether the biodiversity crisis constitutes a mass extinction event, all agreed that current extinction rates are 50–500 times background and are increasing and that the consequences for the future evolution of life are serious. In response to the on-going rapid decline of biomes and homogenization of biotas, the panelists predicted changes in species geographic ranges, genetic risks of extinction, genetic assimilation, natural selection, mutation rates, the shortening of food chains, the increase in nutrient-enriched niches permitting the ascendancy of microbes, and the differential survival of ecological generalists. Rates of evolutionary processes will change in different groups, and speciation in the larger vertebrates is essentially over. Action taken over the next few decades will determine how impoverished the biosphere will be in 1,000 years when many species will suffer reduced evolvability and require interventionist genetic and ecological management. Whether the biota will continue to provide the dependable ecological services humans take for granted is less clear. The discussants offered recommendations, including two of paramount importance (concerning human populations and education), seven identifying specific scientific activities to better equip us for stewardship of the processes of evolution, and one suggesting that such stewardship is now our responsibility. The ultimate test of evolutionary biology as a science is not whether it solves the riddles of the past but rather whether it enables us to manage the future of the biosphere. Our inability to make clearer predictions about the future of evolution has serious consequences for both biodiversity and humanity.

From tropics to tundra: Global convergence in plant functioning

Despite striking differences in climate, soils, and evolutionary history among diverse biomes ranging from tropical and temperate forests to alpine tundra and desert, we found similar interspecific relationships among leaf structure and function and plant growth in all biomes. Our results thus demonstrate convergent evolution and global generality in plant functioning, despite the enormous diversity of plant species and biomes. For 280 plant species from two global data sets, we found that potential carbon gain (photosynthesis) and carbon loss (respiration) increase in similar proportion with decreasing leaf life-span, increasing leaf nitrogen concentration, and increasing leaf surface area-to-mass ratio. Productivity of individual plants and of leaves in vegetation canopies also changes in constant proportion to leaf life-span and surface area-to-mass ratio. These global plant functional relationships have significant implications for global scale modeling of vegetation–atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Paleoclimate and Amerindians: Evidence from stable isotopes and atmospheric circulation

Two Amerindian demographic shifts are attributed to climate change in the northwest plains of North America: at ≈11,000 calendar years before present (yr BP), Amerindian culture apparently split into foothills–mountains vs. plains biomes; and from 8,000–5,000 yr BP, scarce archaeological sites on the open plains suggest emigration during xeric “Altithermal” conditions. We reconstructed paleoclimates from stable isotopes in prehistoric bison bone and relations between weather and fractions of C4 plants in forage. Further, we developed a climate-change model that synthesized stable isotope, existing qualitative evidence (e.g., palynological, erosional), and global climate mechanisms affecting this midlatitude region. Our isotope data indicate significant warming from ≈12,400 to 11,900 yr BP, supporting climate-driven cultural separation. However, isotope evidence of apparently wet, warm conditions at 7,300 yr BP refutes emigration to avoid xeric conditions. Scarcity of archaeological sites is best explained by rapid climate fluctuations after catastrophic draining of the Laurentide Lakes, which disrupted North Atlantic Deep Water production and subsequently altered monsoonal inputs to the open plains.

Evolution of genome–phenome diversity under environmental stress

The genomic era revolutionized evolutionary biology. The enigma of genotypic-phenotypic diversity and biodiversity evolution of genes, genomes, phenomes, and biomes, reviewed here, was central in the research program of the Institute of Evolution, University of Haifa, since 1975. We explored the following questions. (i) How much of the genomic and phenomic diversity in nature is adaptive and processed by natural selection? (ii) What is the origin and evolution of adaptation and speciation processes under spatiotemporal variables and stressful macrogeographic and microgeographic environments? We advanced ecological genetics into ecological genomics and analyzed globally ecological, demographic, and life history variables in 1,200 diverse species across life, thousands of populations, and tens of thousands of individuals tested mostly for allozyme and partly for DNA diversity. Likewise, we tested thermal, chemical, climatic, and biotic stresses in several model organisms. Recently, we introduced genetic maps and quantitative trait loci to elucidate the genetic basis of adaptation and speciation. The genome–phenome holistic model was deciphered by the global regressive, progressive, and convergent evolution of subterranean mammals. Our results indicate abundant genotypic and phenotypic diversity in nature. The organization and evolution of molecular and organismal diversity in nature at global, regional, and local scales are nonrandom and structured; display regularities across life; and are positively correlated with, and partly predictable by, abiotic and biotic environmental heterogeneity and stress. Biodiversity evolution, even in small isolated populations, is primarily driven by natural selection, including diversifying, balancing, cyclical, and purifying selective regimes, interacting with, but ultimately overriding, the effects of mutation, migration, and stochasticity.