Data assimilation and its applications

In data assimilation, one prepares the grid data as the best possible estimate of the true initial state of a considered system by merging various measurements irregularly distributed in space and time, with a prior knowledge of the state given by a numerical model. Because it may improve forecasting or modeling and increase physical understanding of considered systems, data assimilation now plays a very important role in studies of atmospheric and oceanic problems. Here, three examples are presented to illustrate the use of new types of observations and the ability of improving forecasting or modeling.

Possible ecological risks of transgenic organism release when transgenes affect mating success: Sexual selection and the Trojan gene hypothesis

Widespread interest in producing transgenic organisms is balanced by concern over ecological hazards, such as species extinction if such organisms were to be released into nature. An ecological risk associated with the introduction of a transgenic organism is that the transgene, though rare, can spread in a natural population. An increase in transgene frequency is often assumed to be unlikely because transgenic organisms typically have some viability disadvantage. Reduced viability is assumed to be common because transgenic individuals are best viewed as macromutants that lack any history of selection that could reduce negative fitness effects. However, these arguments ignore the potential advantageous effects of transgenes on some aspect of fitness such as mating success. Here, we examine the risk to a natural population after release of a few transgenic individuals when the transgene trait simultaneously increases transgenic male mating success and lowers the viability of transgenic offspring. We obtained relevant life history data by using the small cyprinodont fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) as a model. Our deterministic equations predict that a transgene introduced into a natural population by a small number of transgenic fish will spread as a result of enhanced mating advantage, but the reduced viability of offspring will cause eventual local extinction of both populations. Such risks should be evaluated with each new transgenic animal before release.

Nature knows best: An amazing reaction cascade is uncovered by design and discovery

The Daphniphyllum alkaloids are a group of highly complex polycyclic alkaloids. Examination of the structures if several members of this family of natural products led to a hypothesis about their mode of biosynthesis (depicted in Scheme SI). Based on this hypothetical biosynthetic pathway, a laboratory synthesis was designed that incorporated as a key transformation the novel one-pot transformation of dialdehyde 24 to pentacyclic unsaturated amine 25. This process turned out to be an exceptionally efficient way to construct the pentacyclic nucleus of the Daphniphyllum alkaloids. However, a purely fortuitous discovery, resulting from accidental use of methylamine rather than ammonia, led to a great improvement in the synthesis and suggests an even more attractive possible biosynthesis.

Effects of passage history and sampling bias on phylogenetic reconstruction of human influenza A evolution

In this paper we determine the extent to which host-mediated mutations and a known sampling bias affect evolutionary studies of human influenza A. Previous phylogenetic reconstruction of influenza A (H3N2) evolution using the hemagglutinin gene revealed an excess of nonsilent substitutions assigned to the terminal branches of the tree. We investigate two hypotheses to explain this observation. The first hypothesis is that the excess reflects mutations that were either not present or were at low frequency in the viral sample isolated from its human host, and that these mutations increased in frequency during passage of the virus in embryonated eggs. A set of 22 codons known to undergo such “host-mediated” mutations showed a significant excess of mutations assigned to branches attaching sequences from egg-cultured (as opposed to cell-cultured) isolates to the tree. Our second hypothesis is that the remaining excess results from sampling bias. Influenza surveillance is purposefully biased toward sequencing antigenically dissimilar strains in an effort to identify new variants that may signal the need to update the vaccine. This bias produces an excess of mutations assigned to terminal branches simply because an isolate with no close relatives is by definition attached to the tree by a relatively long branch. Simulations show that the magnitude of excess mutations we observed in the hemagglutinin tree is consistent with expectations based on our sampling protocol. Sampling bias does not affect inferences about evolution drawn from phylogenetic analyses. However, if possible, the excess caused by host-mediated mutations should be removed from studies of the evolution of influenza viruses as they replicate in their human hosts.

Accurate reconstruction of a known HIV-1 transmission history by phylogenetic tree analysis.

Phylogenetic analyses are increasingly used in attempts to clarify transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), but there is a continuing discussion about their validity because convergent evolution and transmission of minor HIV variants may obscure epidemiological patterns. Here we have studied a unique HIV-1 transmission cluster consisting of nine infected individuals, for whom the time and direction of each virus transmission was exactly known. Most of the transmissions occurred between 1981 and 1983, and a total of 13 blood samples were obtained approximately 2-12 years later. The p17 gag and env V3 regions of the HIV-1 genome were directly sequenced from uncultured lymphocytes. A true phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the knowledge about when the transmissions had occurred and when the samples were obtained. This complex, known HIV-1 transmission history was compared with reconstructed molecular trees, which were calculated from the DNA sequences by several commonly used phylogenetic inference methods [Fitch-Margoliash, neighbor-joining, minimum-evolution, maximum-likelihood, maximum-parsimony, unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages (UPGMA), and a Fitch-Margoliash method assuming a molecular clock (KITSCH)]. A majority of the reconstructed trees were good estimates of the true phylogeny; 12 of 13 taxa were correctly positioned in the most accurate trees. The choice of gene fragment was found to be more important than the choice of phylogenetic method and substitution model. However, methods that are sensitive to unequal rates of change performed more poorly (such as UPGMA and KITSCH, which assume a constant molecular clock). The rapidly evolving V3 fragment gave better reconstructions than p17, but a combined data set of both p17 and V3 performed best. The accuracy of the phylogenetic methods justifies their use in HIV-1 research and argues against convergent evolution and selective transmission of certain virus variants.

The best thermoelectric.

What electronic structure provides the largest figure of merit for thermoelectric materials? To answer that question, we write the electrical conductivity, thermopower, and thermal conductivity as integrals of a single function, the transport distribution. Then we derive the mathematical function for the transport distribution, which gives the largest figure of merit. A delta-shaped transport distribution is found to maximize the thermoelectric properties. This result indicates that a narrow distribution of the energy of the electrons participating in the transport process is needed for maximum thermoelectric efficiency. Some possible realizations of this idea are discussed.

In vivo estimates of division and death rates of human T lymphocytes.

We present data on the decay, after radiotherapy, of naive and memory human T lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage. These data are analyzed in conjunction with existing data on the decay of naive and memory T lymphocytes with unstable chromosome damage and older data on unsorted lymphocytes. The analyses yield in vivo estimates for some life-history parameters of human T lymphocytes. Best estimates of proliferation rates have naive lymphocytes dividing once every 3.5 years and memory lymphocytes dividing once every 22 weeks. It appears that memory lymphocytes can revert to the naive phenotype, but only, on average, after 3.5 years in the memory class. The lymphocytes with stable chromosome damage decay very slowly, yielding surprisingly low estimates of their death rate. The estimated parameters are used in a simple mathematical model of the population dynamics of undamaged naive and memory lymphocytes. We use this model to illustrate that it is possible for the unprimed subset of a constantly stimulated clone to stay small, even when there is a large population of specific primed cells reverting to the unprimed state.