A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

Nature knows best: An amazing reaction cascade is uncovered by design and discovery

The Daphniphyllum alkaloids are a group of highly complex polycyclic alkaloids. Examination of the structures if several members of this family of natural products led to a hypothesis about their mode of biosynthesis (depicted in Scheme SI). Based on this hypothetical biosynthetic pathway, a laboratory synthesis was designed that incorporated as a key transformation the novel one-pot transformation of dialdehyde 24 to pentacyclic unsaturated amine 25. This process turned out to be an exceptionally efficient way to construct the pentacyclic nucleus of the Daphniphyllum alkaloids. However, a purely fortuitous discovery, resulting from accidental use of methylamine rather than ammonia, led to a great improvement in the synthesis and suggests an even more attractive possible biosynthesis.

Approximation algorithms

Increasing global competition, rapidly changing markets, and greater consumer awareness have altered the way in which corporations do business. To become more efficient, many industries have sought to model some operational aspects by gigantic optimization problems. It is not atypical to encounter models that capture 106 separate “yes” or “no” decisions to be made. Although one could, in principle, try all 2106 possible solutions to find the optimal one, such a method would be impractically slow. Unfortunately, for most of these models, no algorithms are known that find optimal solutions with reasonable computation times. Typically, industry must rely on solutions of unguaranteed quality that are constructed in an ad hoc manner. Fortunately, for some of these models there are good approximation algorithms: algorithms that produce solutions quickly that are provably close to optimal. Over the past 6 years, there has been a sequence of major breakthroughs in our understanding of the design of approximation algorithms and of limits to obtaining such performance guarantees; this area has been one of the most flourishing areas of discrete mathematics and theoretical computer science.

The best thermoelectric.

What electronic structure provides the largest figure of merit for thermoelectric materials? To answer that question, we write the electrical conductivity, thermopower, and thermal conductivity as integrals of a single function, the transport distribution. Then we derive the mathematical function for the transport distribution, which gives the largest figure of merit. A delta-shaped transport distribution is found to maximize the thermoelectric properties. This result indicates that a narrow distribution of the energy of the electrons participating in the transport process is needed for maximum thermoelectric efficiency. Some possible realizations of this idea are discussed.

Motor learning by field approximation.

We investigated how human subjects adapt to forces perturbing the motion of their ams. We found that this kind of learning is based on the capacity of the central nervous system (CNS) to predict and therefore to cancel externally applied perturbing forces. Our experimental results indicate: (i) that the ability of the CNS to compensate for the perturbing forces is restricted to those spatial locations where the perturbations have been experienced by the moving arm. The subjects also are able to compensate for forces experienced at neighboring workspace locations. However, adaptation decays smoothly and quickly with distance from the locations where disturbances had been sensed by the moving limb. (ii) Our experiments also how that the CNS builds an internal model of the external perturbing forces in intrinsic (muscles and / or joints) coordinates.

Modeling and optimization of populations subject to time-dependent mutation.

It has become clear that many organisms possess the ability to regulate their mutation rate in response to environmental conditions. So the question of finding an optimal mutation rate must be replaced by that of finding an optimal mutation schedule. We show that this task cannot be accomplished with standard population-dynamic models. We then develop a "hybrid" model for populations experiencing time-dependent mutation that treats population growth as deterministic but the time of first appearance of new variants as stochastic. We show that the hybrid model agrees well with a Monte Carlo simulation. From this model, we derive a deterministic approximation, a "threshold" model, that is similar to standard population dynamic models but differs in the initial rate of generation of new mutants. We use these techniques to model antibody affinity maturation by somatic hypermutation. We had previously shown that the optimal mutation schedule for the deterministic threshold model is phasic, with periods of mutation between intervals of mutation-free growth. To establish the validity of this schedule, we now show that the phasic schedule that optimizes the deterministic threshold model significantly improves upon the best constant-rate schedule for the hybrid and Monte Carlo models.