6 resultados para Bayesian statistical decision theory

em National Center for Biotechnology Information - NCBI


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Cation-π interactions are important forces in molecular recognition by biological receptors, enzyme catalysis, and crystal engineering. We have harnessed these interactions in designing molecular systems with circular arrangement of benzene units that are capable of acting as ionophores and models for biological receptors. [n]Collarenes are promising candidates with high selectivity for a specific cation, depending on n, because of their structural rigidity and well-defined cavity size. The interaction energies of [n]collarenes with cations have been evaluated by using ab initio calculations. The selectivity of these [n]collarenes in aqueous solution was revealed by using statistical perturbation theory in conjunction with Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. It has been observed that in [n]collarenes the ratio of the interaction energies of a cation with it and the cation with the basic building unit (benzene) can be correlated to its ion selectivity. We find that collarenes are excellent and efficient ionophores that bind cations through cation-π interactions. [6]Collarene is found to be a selective host for Li+ and Mg2+, [8]collarene for K+ and Sr2+, and [10]collarene for Cs+ and Ba2+. This finding indicates that [10]collarene and [8]collarene could be used for effective separation of highly radioactive isotopes, 137Cs and 90Sr, which are major constituents of nuclear wastes. More interestingly, collarenes of larger cavity size can be useful in capturing organic cations. [12]Collarene exhibits a pronounced affinity for tetramethylammonium cation and acetylcholine, which implies that it could serve as a model for acetylcholinestrase. Thus, collarenes can prove to be novel and effective ionophores/model-receptors capable of heralding a new direction in molecular recognition and host-guest chemistry.

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We examine decision making in two-person extensive form game trees using nine treatments that vary matching protocol, payoffs, and payoff information. Our objective is to establish replicable principles of cooperative versus noncooperative behavior that involve the use of signaling, reciprocity, and backward induction strategies, depending on the availability of dominated direct punishing strategies and the probability of repeated interaction with the same partner. Contrary to the predictions of game theory, we find substantial support for cooperation under complete information even in various single-play treatments.

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A “most probable state” equilibrium statistical theory for random distributions of hetons in a closed basin is developed here in the context of two-layer quasigeostrophic models for the spreading phase of open-ocean convection. The theory depends only on bulk conserved quantities such as energy, circulation, and the range of values of potential vorticity in each layer. The simplest theory is formulated for a uniform cooling event over the entire basin that triggers a homogeneous random distribution of convective towers. For a small Rossby deformation radius typical for open-ocean convection sites, the most probable states that arise from this theory strongly resemble the saturated baroclinic states of the spreading phase of convection, with a stabilizing barotropic rim current and localized temperature anomaly.

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A model of interdependent decision making has been developed to understand group differences in socioeconomic behavior such as nonmarital fertility, school attendance, and drug use. The statistical mechanical structure of the model illustrates how the physical sciences contain useful tools for the study of socioeconomic phenomena.

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Over four hundred years ago, Sir Walter Raleigh asked his mathematical assistant to find formulas for the number of cannonballs in regularly stacked piles. These investigations aroused the curiosity of the astronomer Johannes Kepler and led to a problem that has gone centuries without a solution: why is the familiar cannonball stack the most efficient arrangement possible? Here we discuss the solution that Hales found in 1998. Almost every part of the 282-page proof relies on long computer verifications. Random matrix theory was developed by physicists to describe the spectra of complex nuclei. In particular, the statistical fluctuations of the eigenvalues (“the energy levels”) follow certain universal laws based on symmetry types. We describe these and then discuss the remarkable appearance of these laws for zeros of the Riemann zeta function (which is the generating function for prime numbers and is the last special function from the last century that is not understood today.) Explaining this phenomenon is a central problem. These topics are distinct, so we present them separately with their own introductory remarks.

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A molecular model of poorly understood hydrophobic effects is heuristically developed using the methods of information theory. Because primitive hydrophobic effects can be tied to the probability of observing a molecular-sized cavity in the solvent, the probability distribution of the number of solvent centers in a cavity volume is modeled on the basis of the two moments available from the density and radial distribution of oxygen atoms in liquid water. The modeled distribution then yields the probability that no solvent centers are found in the cavity volume. This model is shown to account quantitatively for the central hydrophobic phenomena of cavity formation and association of inert gas solutes. The connection of information theory to statistical thermodynamics provides a basis for clarification of hydrophobic effects. The simplicity and flexibility of the approach suggest that it should permit applications to conformational equilibria of nonpolar solutes and hydrophobic residues in biopolymers.